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Causes and consequences of tipping points in river delta social–ecological systems
Ambio ( IF 5.8 ) Pub Date : 2024-04-13 , DOI: 10.1007/s13280-023-01978-2
Emilie Cremin , Cai J. T. Ladd , Thorsten Balke , Sumana Banerjee , Ly H. Bui , Tuhin Ghosh , Andy Large , Hue Thi Van Le , Kien V. Nguyen , Lan X. Nguyen , Tanh T. N. Nguyen , Vinh Nguyen , Indrajit Pal , Sylvia Szabo , Ha Tran , Zita Sebesvari , Shah Alam Khan , Fabrice G. Renaud

The sustainability of social–ecological systems within river deltas globally is in question as rapid development and environmental change trigger “negative” or “positive” tipping points depending on actors’ perspectives, e.g. regime shift from abundant sediment deposition to sediment shortage, agricultural sustainability to agricultural collapse or shift from rural to urban land use. Using a systematic review of the literature, we show how cascading effects across anthropogenic, ecological, and geophysical processes have triggered numerous tipping points in the governance, hydrological, and land-use management of the world’s river deltas. Crossing tipping points had both positive and negative effects that generally enhanced economic development to the detriment of the environment. Assessment of deltas that featured prominently in the review revealed how outcomes of tipping points can inform the long-term trajectory of deltas towards sustainability or collapse. Management of key drivers at the delta scale can trigger positive tipping points to place social–ecological systems on a pathway towards sustainable development.



中文翻译:

河流三角洲社会生态系统临界点的原因和后果

全球河流三角洲内社会生态系统的可持续性受到质疑,因为快速发展和环境变化会触发“消极”或“积极”的临界点,具体取决于参与者的观点,例如,从沉积物沉积丰富到沉积物短缺的制度转变,农业可持续发展到沉积物短缺。农业崩溃或土地利用从农村转向城市。通过对文献的系统回顾,我们展示了人为、生态和地球物理过程的级联效应如何引发世界河流三角洲治理、水文和土地利用管理的众多转折点。跨越临界点既有积极的影响,也有消极的影响,通常会促进经济发展,但会损害环境。审查中重点关注的三角洲评估揭示了临界点的结果如何影响三角洲走向可持续或崩溃的长期轨迹。对三角洲规模关键驱动因素的管理可以触发积极的转折点,使社会生态系统走上可持续发展的道路。

更新日期:2024-04-13
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