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Monetary Policy and Asset Price Overshooting: A Rationale for the Wall/Main Street Disconnect
Journal of Finance ( IF 7.6 ) Pub Date : 2024-04-12 , DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13343 RICARDO J. CABALLERO , ALP SIMSEK
Journal of Finance ( IF 7.6 ) Pub Date : 2024-04-12 , DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13343 RICARDO J. CABALLERO , ALP SIMSEK
We analyze optimal monetary policy and its implications for asset prices when aggregate demand has inertia. If there is a negative output gap, the central bank optimally overshoots aggregate asset prices (above their steady-state levels consistent with current potential output). Overshooting leads to a temporary disconnect between the performance of financial markets and the real economy, but accelerates the recovery. When there is a lower bound constraint on the discount rate, good macroeconomic news is better news for asset prices when the output gap is more negative. Finally, we document that during the COVID-19 recovery, the policy-induced overshooting was large.
中文翻译:
货币政策和资产价格超调:华尔街与大街脱节的理由
我们分析总需求具有惯性时的最优货币政策及其对资产价格的影响。如果存在负产出缺口,央行会最优地超调总资产价格(高于与当前潜在产出一致的稳态水平)。超调会导致金融市场表现与实体经济暂时脱节,但会加速复苏。当贴现率存在下限约束时,当产出缺口更负时,良好的宏观经济消息对资产价格来说是更好的消息。最后,我们记录了在 COVID-19 复苏期间,政策引发的超调幅度很大。
更新日期:2024-04-12
中文翻译:
货币政策和资产价格超调:华尔街与大街脱节的理由
我们分析总需求具有惯性时的最优货币政策及其对资产价格的影响。如果存在负产出缺口,央行会最优地超调总资产价格(高于与当前潜在产出一致的稳态水平)。超调会导致金融市场表现与实体经济暂时脱节,但会加速复苏。当贴现率存在下限约束时,当产出缺口更负时,良好的宏观经济消息对资产价格来说是更好的消息。最后,我们记录了在 COVID-19 复苏期间,政策引发的超调幅度很大。