Uncertainty permeates the world of entrepreneurship. Yet, understanding how entrepreneurs perceive and make decisions in the face of uncertainty remains elusive. The value of Bayesian decision models with their probabilistic-based assumptions is only of limited help to entrepreneurs in solving the problem of uncertainty. This research extends the utility of modes of entrepreneurial cognition as a supplementary epistemology for shedding light into the ‘black box’ of how entrepreneurs navigate unknowable futures. We conceptualize core insights, on how decision-makers make sense of, interpret, and act amidst life's deep uncertainties. Specifically, we introduce four decision heuristics entrepreneurs adopt—grounded in the shared foundations in broader conceptions of uncertainty from the psychology of religious faith—that help systematize why (a) intuitive insight, (b) generative doubt, (c) redemptive choice, and (d) transcendent faith, enhance our understanding of how elements of uncertainty throughout the venture development journey are often addressed. Implications for future research are discussed.

中文翻译：

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应对创业不确定性的非概率推理：宗教信仰视角下的心理学


不确定性充斥着创业世界。然而，了解企业家在面对不确定性时如何看待和做出决策仍然难以捉摸。贝叶斯决策模型及其基于概率的假设对于企业家解决不确定性问题的帮助有限。这项研究扩展了创业认知模式的实用性，作为一种补充认识论，揭示了企业家如何驾驭不可知的未来的“黑匣子”。我们对决策者如何在生活的深度不确定性中理解、解释和采取行动的核心见解进行概念化。具体来说，我们介绍了企业家采用的四种决策启发式——基于宗教信仰心理学中更广泛的不确定性概念的共同基础——这有助于系统化为什么（a）直觉洞察，（b）生成性怀疑，（c）救赎选择，以及(d) 超越的信念，增强我们对如何解决整个风险开发过程中的不确定因素的理解。讨论了对未来研究的影响。