Academic mismatch, the incompatibility between applicants’/students’ aptitude and their desired/current academic program, is considered a key predictor of degree attainment. Evaluations of this link tend to be cross-sectional, however, focusing on specific stages of the college pipeline and ignoring mismatch at prior or later stages and their potential outcomes. We developed and tested a longitudinal and multidimensional framework that classifies mismatches along the college pipeline by direction (match, overmatch, undermatch) and stage (application, admission, enrollment). We combined them into match pathways and evaluated how these configurations shape graduation outcomes. Analyses of administrative data on all applicants and students at universities in Israel between 1998 and 2003 demonstrate the added value of this framework. We show that academic mismatch is substantially more prevalent and complex than previously depicted, with only a third of all students fully matched at all stages. Mismatch at each stage affects graduation chances, but the effect is also path-dependent. Thus, it is important to study the entire match pathway to understand how academic mismatch shapes inequality in graduation outcomes. Our findings have important implications for policies designed to increase degree attainment and diversity.

中文翻译：

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匹配途径和大学毕业：学术不匹配的纵向和多维框架

学术不匹配，即申请人/学生的能力与他们想要的/当前的学术课程之间的不相容，被认为是学位获得的关键预测因素。然而，对这种联系的评估往往是横向的，重点关注大学管道的特定阶段，而忽略先前或后期阶段的不匹配及其潜在结果。我们开发并测试了一个纵向多维框架，该框架按方向（匹配、强匹配、弱匹配）和阶段（申请、录取、入学）对大学管道中的不匹配进行分类。我们将它们组合成匹配​​路径，并评估这些配置如何影响毕业结果。对 1998 年至 2003 年间以色列大学所有申请者和学生的行政数据的分析证明了该框架的附加值。我们发现，学术不匹配比之前描述的更加普遍和复杂，只有三分之一的学生在所有阶段都完全匹配。每个阶段的不匹配都会影响毕业机会，但效果也取决于路径。因此，研究整个匹配路径以了解学术不匹配如何影响毕业结果的不平等非常重要。我们的研究结果对于旨在提高学位获得率和多样性的政策具有重要意义。