Climate change will substantially increase extreme rainfall events, especially in the Tropics, enhancing flood risks. Such imminent risks require climate adaptation strategies to endure extreme rainfall and increase drainage systems. Here, we evaluate the potential of nature-based solutions by using an ecosystem service modeling approach, evaluating the impact of extreme rainfall events on flood risks in a large urban area and with a real-world land recovery plan. We evaluate the cost-effectiveness of four different land recovery scenarios and associated co-benefits, based on a gradient increase in area recovered and cost of implementation. Although the scenarios reveal increasing flood risk reduction and co-benefits along with greater proportion of land recovery, the most cost-effective scenario was the one with an intermediate land recovery where 30% of the study area would be reforested. We emphasize the striking benefits of nature-based solutions for flood risk reduction in cities, considering landscape scale and stakeholders’ needs.

气候变化将大幅增加极端降雨事件，特别是在热带地区，从而增加洪水风险。此类迫在眉睫的风险需要气候适应策略来承受极端降雨并增加排水系统。在这里，我们通过使用生态系统服务建模方法来评估基于自然的解决方案的潜力，评估极端降雨事件对大城市地区洪水风险的影响以及现实世界的土地恢复计划。我们根据恢复面积和实施成本的梯度增加，评估了四种不同土地恢复方案的成本效益和相关的协同效益。尽管这些情景显示，随着土地恢复比例的提高，洪水风险和协同效益不断增加，但最具成本效益的情景是中等土地恢复情景，其中 30% 的研究区域将被重新造林。考虑到景观规模和利益相关者的需求，我们强调基于自然的解决方案对于减少城市洪水风险的显着好处。