In response to cases that involve tiny probabilities of huge payoffs, some argue that we ought to discount small probabilities down to zero. However, this paper shows that doing so violates Independence and Continuity, and as a result of these violations, those who discount small probabilities can be exploited by money pumps. Various possible ways of avoiding exploitation will be discussed. This paper concludes that the money pump for Independence undermines the plausibility of discounting small probabilities. Much of the discussion on Independence generalizes to other views that also violate Independence.

中文翻译：

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概率贴现和资金泵

针对那些涉及微小概率而带来巨大回报的案例，一些人认为我们应该将小概率折扣为零。然而，本文表明，这样做违反了独立性和连续性，并且由于这些违规行为，那些低估小概率的人可能会被资金泵利用。将讨论避免利用的各种可能的方法。本文的结论是，独立的资金泵破坏了小概率贴现的合理性。关于独立性的许多讨论都概括为也违反独立性的其他观点。