Although political turnover is said to be a healthy component of the business environment, the literature is equivocal about the effects of regime change on early-stage entrepreneurial activity. I present incumbent displacement—the electoral defeat of an incumbent political party's candidate—as a source of regime change, and I analyze how this affects business formation through the lens of real options theory. I test my theory using US gubernatorial elections from 2004 to 2022, leveraging a Regression Discontinuity design to compare changes in business formation trends following elections where a challenger party candidate wins or loses by a close margin. I find that regime change reduces venture creation activity for growth-oriented ventures specifically. I also find evidence of a partial rebound in subsequent months—suggestive that some entrepreneurs delay entry while others permanently abandon their ventures.

中文翻译：

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政权更迭对创业的影响：基于美国州长选举证据的实物期权方法


尽管据说政治更替是商业环境的一个健康组成部分，但有关政权更迭对早期创业活动的影响的文献却模棱两可。我将现任政党的取代（现任政党候选人在选举中失败）视为政权更迭的一个根源，并通过实物期权理论的视角分析了这如何影响企业的形成。我使用 2004 年至 2022 年的美国州长选举来测试我的理论，利用不连续性回归设计来比较挑战党候选人以微弱优势获胜或失败的选举后企业形成趋势的变化。我发现政权更迭尤其减少了成长型企业的创业活动。我还发现了随后几个月出现部分反弹的证据——这表明一些企业家推迟了进入，而另一些企业家则永久放弃了他们的企业。