This research compares two different methods of tracing cyclones in the North Indian Ocean (NIO)- (i) Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Direct Detection (CDD) and Okubo-Weiss-Zeta parameter (OWZ) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model data. Many CMIP5 models are evaluated against TC observations from the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) and a statistical Generalised Additive Model for climate change projections in the past (1970–2000). Estimates of TCs' potential future occurrence in the NIO are evaluated using CMIP5 models (2070–2100). When compared to historical tracks, the geographic distribution of TCs generated by both detection techniques is consistent with what would be expected, and the frequency of TCs in the models is, with a few exceptions, consistent with observations. Generally, the OWZ plan results in more TCs per unit time than the CDD scheme. Though there are significant differences between the two tracking techniques, a small number of models have TC counts that are virtually similar. Compared to the CDD plan, the OWZ scheme generally has higher performance in the NIO area.

中文翻译：

---

CMIP5 模型下使用不同跟踪方案对北印度洋热带气旋的预测


本研究比较了追踪北印度洋 (NIO) 气旋的两种不同方法 - (i) 联邦科学与工业研究组织 (CSIRO) 直接检测 (CDD) 和耦合模型比对中的 Okubo-Weiss-Zeta 参数 (OWZ)项目第 5 阶段 (CMIP5) 模型数据。许多 CMIP5 模型是根据国际气候管理最佳跟踪档案 (IBTrACS) 的 TC 观测结果以及过去（1970-2000 年）气候变化预测的统计广义加性模型进行评估的。使用 CMIP5 模型（2070-2100）评估了 NIO 中 TC 未来潜在发生的估计。与历史轨迹相比，两种检测技术生成的 TC 的地理分布与预期一致，并且模型中 TC 的频率（除少数例外）与观测结果一致。一般来说，OWZ 方案单位时间产生的 TC 数量比 CDD 方案多。尽管两种跟踪技术之间存在显着差异，但少数模型的 TC 计数实际上相似。相比于CDD方案，OWZ方案在NIO领域普遍具有更高的性能。