While migration from Africa to Europe is increasing, aspiring migrants from Africa are still less likely than those from other continents to migrate to their preferred destinations. An analysis of the reasons for this is needed. This paper investigates how individual‐level traits and country income levels influence intentions and abilities to migrate from Africa to Europe, while also exploring regional differences. It does so through an approach investigating the influence of both micro‐level factors and macro‐level factors, as well as their interactions. It first analyses migration intentions in 47 African countries in the Years 2010–2015, by investigating plans to migrate to Europe. It then analyses abilities to migrate from these countries to Europe in the Years 2011–2016, by exploring the proxy of the conversion of migration plans into flows. The analysis is based on Gallup World Poll, Eurostat, Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development, Frontex, and World Bank data and estimates. The paper finds that 1.4% of individuals in the African countries considered were planning to migrate to Europe in the Years 2010–2015, and an estimated 5.8% of these was able to migrate in 2011–2016. Migration intentions and abilities are shaped by a complex interplay of micro‐ and macro‐level factors. While some individual‐level traits have similar effects on migration intentions across country income levels, others increase the likelihood of planning to migrate to a stronger extent in countries of origin with higher income levels. Abilities to convert migration plans into actual migration, and to do so through regular channels, increase with higher country income levels. The influence of individual‐level traits and country income levels on migration intentions and abilities appears to vary across regions. Findings confirm the relevance of approaches investigating migration intentions and abilities by assessing both micro‐ and macro‐level factors, as well as their interactions. A more nuanced understanding of these interactions is crucial to inform migration policies that recognise the different needs and realities of aspiring migrants.

中文翻译：

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从非洲移民到欧洲的意图和能力

尽管从非洲到欧洲的移民不断增加，但与其他大陆的移民相比，有抱负的非洲移民仍然不太可能移民到他们喜欢的目的地。需要分析其原因。本文研究了个人层面的特征和国家收入水平如何影响从非洲移民到欧洲的意图和能力，同时也探讨了区域差异。它通过研究微观因素和宏观因素的影响以及它们之间的相互作用来实现这一点。它首先通过调查移民到欧洲的计划，分析了 2010-2015 年 47 个非洲国家的移民意向。然后，通过探索移民计划转化为流量的指标，分析 2011-2016 年从这些国家移民到欧洲的能力。该分析基于盖洛普世界民意调查、欧盟统计局、经济合作与发展组织、Frontex 和世界银行的数据和估计。该论文发现，所考虑的非洲国家中有 1.4% 的人计划在 2010 年至 2015 年期间移民到欧洲，其中估计有 5.8% 的人能够在 2011 年至 2016 年期间移民。移民意图和能力是由微观和宏观因素的复杂相互作用决定的。虽然一些个人层面的特征对不同国家收入水平的移民意图有类似的影响，但其他特征则增加了计划在收入水平较高的原籍国进行更大程度移民的可能性。随着国家收入水平的提高，通过正规渠道将移民计划转化为实际移民的能力也随之增强。个人层面的特征和国家收入水平对移民意图和能力的影响似乎因地区而异。研究结果证实了通过评估微观和宏观因素及其相互作用来调查移民意图和能力的方法的相关性。对这些相互作用的更细致的了解对于制定移民政策至关重要，从而认识到有抱负的移民的不同需求和现实。