The COVID‐19 pandemic has potential large‐scale impacts on population dynamics. Yet, recent theories and empirical analyses fall short of fully articulating the extent and nature of the pandemic's influence on birth rates at the aggregate level. This study advances the comprehension of fertility dynamics amid the pandemic by focusing on the reproductive process. The effects of the pandemic on conceptions and pregnancy terminations may exhibit considerable variability, which, in turn, could dictate the observed patterns in birth rates during the pandemic. Employing the data from the Performance Monitoring Action survey in Burkina Faso and Kenya, which includes information on conceptions, pregnancy terminations, and births, the research dissects the nuances of fertility behavior in response to the pandemic. Findings indicate an uptick in conception rates around six months following the onset of the pandemic in Kenya, while pregnancy terminations did not significantly shift in either country. Further, the data reveal a pronounced increase in conception rates among disadvantaged groups, whereas a downturn in pregnancy terminations was noted predominantly in urban areas during the early phase of the pandemic. These findings underscore the importance of considering the reproductive process when studying fertility responses to catastrophic events.

中文翻译：

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对 COVID-19 大流行的生育反应：生殖过程的视角

COVID-19 大流行对人口动态具有潜在的大规模影响。然而，最近的理论和实证分析未能充分阐明这一流行病对总体出生率影响的程度和性质。这项研究通过关注生殖过程，促进了对大流行期间生育动态的理解。大流行对受孕和终止妊娠的影响可能表现出相当大的变异性，这反过来又可能决定大流行期间观察到的出生率模式。该研究利用布基纳法索和肯尼亚绩效监测行动调查的数据，其中包括有关受孕、终止妊娠和出生的信息，剖析了应对这一流行病的生育行为的细微差别。调查结果表明，肯尼亚在疫情爆发后约六个月内受孕率有所上升，而两国的终止妊娠情况均没有显着变化。此外，数据显示，弱势群体的受孕率显着上升，而在大流行早期阶段，终止妊娠的情况主要出现在城市地区。这些发现强调了在研究生育对灾难事件的反应时考虑生殖过程的重要性。