Despite efforts to incorporate protective factors or ‘strengths’ in applied risk assessments for criminal reoffending, there has been limited progress towards a consensus regarding what is meant by such terms, what effects predictors can exert, or how to describe such effects. This proof of concept study was undertaken to address those issues. A structured professional judgment tool was used to create lower and higher historical/static risk groups with a sample of 273 justice-involved male youth with sexual offenses followed over a fixed 3-year period. Using risk and protective poles to create pairs of dichotomous variables from trichotomously rated risk and protective items, risk-based exacerbation and risk-based protective effects were found. These varied in terms of whether the effect on the outcome of a new violent (including sexual) offense was larger, smaller, or absent for youth at higher or lower historical/static risk. Some of these potentially dynamic dichotomous variables were shown to have a protective (or risk) effect after controlling for both historical/static risk and that same item’s risk (or protective) effect. Some moderated the association between historical/static risk and recidivism, strengthening or reducing it. Terms for these effects and implications of incorporating strengths in research and applied practice were considered.

中文翻译：

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使用青少年暴力风险结构化评估工具对参与正义的青少年进行优势概念调查的第二次验证：项目级别基于风险的影响和相互作用


尽管人们努力将保护因素或“优势”纳入刑事再犯罪的应用风险评估中，但在这些术语的含义、预测因素可以发挥什么作用或如何描述这些作用方面达成共识的进展有限。这项概念验证研究就是为了解决这些问题而进行的。使用结构化的专业判断工具来创建较低和较高的历史/静态风险组，对 273 名参与司法的性犯罪男性青年进行了为期 3 年的跟踪调查。使用风险和保护极点从三分评级的风险和保护项目创建成对的二分变量，发现基于风险的恶化和基于风险的保护效果。这些差异在于，对于历史/静态风险较高或较低的青少年来说，新的暴力（包括性）犯罪对结果的影响是否更大、更小或不存在。在控制历史/静态风险和同一项目的风险（或保护）效应后，其中一些潜在的动态二分变量被证明具有保护（或风险）效应。一些人调节了历史/静态风险与累犯之间的关联，加强或减少了这种关联。考虑了这些影响的术语以及将研究和应用实践的优势纳入其中的含义。