Potential natural vegetation (PNV) is a valuable reference for ecosystem renovation and has garnered increasing attention worldwide. However, there is limited knowledge on the spatio-temporal distributions, transitional processes, and underlying mechanisms of global natural vegetation, particularly in the case of ongoing climate warming. In this study, we visualize the spatio-temporal pattern and inter-transition procedure of global PNV, analyse the shifting distances and directions of global PNV under the influence of climatic disturbance, and explore the mechanisms of global PNV in response to temperature and precipitation fluctuations. To achieve this, we utilize meteorological data, mainly temperature and precipitation, from six phases: the Last Inter-Glacial (LIG), the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the Mid Holocene (MH), the Present Day (PD), 2030 (2021–2040) and 2090 (2081–2100), and employ a widely-accepted comprehensive and sequential classification system (CSCS) for global PNV classification. We find that the spatial patterns of five PNV groups (forest, shrubland, savanna, grassland and tundra) generally align with their respective ecotopes, although their distributions have shifted due to fluctuating temperature and precipitation. Notably, we observe an unexpected transition between tundra and savanna despite their geographical distance. The shifts in distance and direction of five PNV groups are mainly driven by temperature and precipitation, although there is heterogeneity among these shifts for each group. Indeed, the heterogeneity observed among different global PNV groups suggests that they may possess varying capacities to adjust to and withstand the impacts of changing climate. The spatio-temporal distributions, mutual transitions and shift tendencies of global PNV and its underlying mechanism in face of changing climate, as revealed in this study, can significantly contribute to the development of strategies for mitigating warming and promoting re-vegetation in degraded regions worldwide.

中文翻译：

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模型分析体现了面对气候变化，全球潜在自然植被的急剧转变

潜在自然植被（PNV）对于生态系统修复具有重要参考价值，越来越受到世界范围的关注。然而，人们对全球自然植被的时空分布、过渡过程和潜在机制的了解有限，特别是在气候持续变暖的情况下。本研究可视化全球PNV的时空格局和相互转换过程，分析气候扰动影响下全球PNV的移动距离和方向，探讨全球PNV对温度和降水波动的响应机制。为了实现这一目标，我们利用六个阶段的气象数据，主要是温度和降水：末次间冰期 (LIG)、末次盛冰期 (LGM)、全新世中期 (MH)、当今 (PD)、2030 年（2021-2040）和2090（2081-2100），并采用广泛接受的综合顺序分类系统（CSCS）进行全球PNV分类。我们发现，五个 PNV 类群（森林、灌木丛、稀树草原、草原和苔原）的空间格局总体上与其各自的生态区一致，尽管它们的分布由于温度和降水的波动而发生了变化。值得注意的是，尽管地理距离遥远，但我们观察到苔原和稀树草原之间出现了意想不到的转变。五个 PNV 组的距离和方向的变化主要由温度和降水驱动，尽管每个组的这些变化之间存在异质性。事实上，在不同的全球 PNV 群体之间观察到的异质性表明，它们可能具有不同的适应和承受气候变化影响的能力。本研究揭示的全球PNV的时空分布、相互转变和变化趋势及其在气候变化下的潜在机制，可以为全球退化地区减缓变暖和促进植被恢复的战略制定做出重大贡献。