Higher education is a key global market and considerable literature has focused on investigating the determinants of international student mobility (ISM). However, less is known about the extent to which the relative influence of these factors is moderated by local conditions and vary across origin countries. Drawing on a unique data set of undergraduate applications from the UK Colleges and Admissions Service, we analyse variations in the contextual determinants of ISM flows to the United Kingdom across countries of origin over a 10‐year period (2009–2019). We run a suite of negative binomial gravity models to understand the key influences of ISM and uncover the spatial heterogeneity of these influences. Our findings reveal a nonlinear relationship between the level of development of origin countries and ISM flows. Although countries from higher development levels are more likely to send students to the United Kingdom, there appears to be a dip in applications at the mid‐levels of development. Given the nonlinearity of this relationship, we seek to understand how countries across different levels of development respond to the typical factors that are seen to influence flows of international students. We also see substantial heterogeneity of the influence of different factors for origin countries, with some countries being influenced by employment opportunities and others by cultural and linguistic ties. However, this variation is not necessarily determined by the countries’ level of development. Our findings have implications for policy makers, educators and researchers seeking to navigate and influence global student mobility trends. Our study highlights the need for tailored strategies to attract and retain international students from specific origin countries, recognising the multifaceted nature of ISM determinants.

中文翻译：

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人类发展与国际学生流动之间的非线性关系：就业前景以及文化和语言联系的突出作用

高等教育是一个重要的全球市场，大量文献集中于调查国际学生流动性 (ISM) 的决定因素。然而，人们对这些因素的相对影响在多大程度上受到当地条件的调节以及在不同原籍国之间存在差异的程度知之甚少。我们利用英国大学和招生服务处本科生申请的独特数据集，分析了 10 年来（2009 年至 2019 年）跨原籍国流向英国的 ISM 的背景决定因素的变化。我们运行一套负二项式引力模型来了解 ISM 的关键影响并揭示这些影响的空间异质性。我们的研究结果揭示了原籍国的发展水平与供应管理体系流量之间的非线性关系。尽管发展水平较高的国家更有可能派学生到英国，但发展水平中等的国家的申请似乎有所下降。鉴于这种关系的非线性，我们试图了解不同发展水平的国家如何应对影响国际学生流动的典型因素。我们还看到不同因素对原籍国的影响存在很大的异质性，一些国家受到就业机会的影响，而另一些国家则受到文化和语言联系的影响。然而，这种差异并不一定由各国的发展水平决定。我们的研究结果对寻求引导和影响全球学生流动趋势的政策制定者、教育工作者和研究人员具有重要意义。我们的研究强调需要制定量身定制的策略来吸引和留住来自特定原籍国的国际学生，认识到 ISM 决定因素的多方面性质。