Transportation ( IF 3.5 ) Pub Date : 2024-03-16 , DOI: 10.1007/s11116-024-10471-y Maliheh Tabasi , Ali Najmi , Eric J. Miller , C. Raina MacIntyre , Taha H. Rashidi
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The Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2, specifically identified as B.1.617.2, is responsible for the severe outbreaks witnessed globally, including in various countries and cities, with Sydney Greater Metropolitan Area (Sydney GMA) being no exception. According to scientific studies, the Delta strain exhibits increased contagion and leads to a higher incidence of vaccine breakthrough cases, posing significant challenges to pandemic control efforts. In this study, we explore the efficacy of three fundamental control strategies—namely, vaccination rates, adherence to facemask usage, and the management of travel loads—in mitigating the spread of the disease and, consequently, eliminating the Delta variant pandemic in Sydney GMA. We employ an agent-based disease spread model to thoroughly investigate these strategies. Moreover, factorial MANOVA is utilised to assess the significance of variations in the impact of diverse compliance levels with the aforementioned control strategies on various attributes of the pandemic. As complete lockdowns and stringent travel regulations have the potential to induce physical and mental distress in individuals and economic crises for countries, our study examines the interactive effects of implementing control strategies to mitigate the necessity for a full lockdown. The simulation results suggest that suppressing a pandemic with similar characteristics to Delta variant of COVID is feasible with a vaccination rate of 80% or higher, as long as travel load and activity participation are maintained at pre-COVID levels. Alternatively, a more realistic and attainable combination of control measures—a vaccination rate of 60%, a facemask usage level of 60%, and a 50% compliance level for social distancing—demonstrates comparable efficacy, leading to effective pandemic control. Notably, the vaccination rate emerges as a more potent control strategy compared to others in the elimination of the disease within society.
中文翻译:
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疫苗接种、出行量和口罩使用控制策略对控制新冠病毒 Delta 变种的有效性:以悉尼都会区为例
SARS-CoV-2 的 Delta 变种(具体称为 B.1.617.2)是导致全球范围内(包括多个国家和城市)严重爆发的原因,悉尼大都市区 (Sydney GMA) 也不例外。科学研究表明,Delta毒株传染性增强,导致疫苗突破病例发生率更高,给疫情控制工作带来重大挑战。在这项研究中,我们探讨了三种基本控制策略(即疫苗接种率、坚持使用口罩以及旅行负荷管理)在减轻疾病传播方面的功效,从而消除悉尼 GMA 的三角洲变种大流行。我们采用基于代理的疾病传播模型来彻底研究这些策略。此外,因子多元方差分析用于评估上述控制策略的不同合规水平对大流行的各种属性的影响的变化的显着性。由于完全封锁和严格的旅行规定有可能给个人带来身心困扰,并给国家带来经济危机,因此我们的研究探讨了实施控制策略以减轻全面封锁必要性的相互作用的影响。模拟结果表明,只要出行量和活动参与度保持在新冠病毒爆发前的水平,通过 80% 或更高的疫苗接种率来抑制与新冠病毒 Delta 变种具有相似特征的大流行是可行的。或者,更现实和可实现的控制措施组合——60%的疫苗接种率、60%的口罩使用率和50%的社交距离遵守率——显示出相当的效果,从而有效控制大流行。值得注意的是,与其他消除社会疾病的策略相比,疫苗接种率成为一种更有效的控制策略。