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New Frontiers: The Origins and Content of New Work, 1940–2018
The Quarterly Journal of Economics ( IF 11.1 ) Pub Date : 2024-03-15 , DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjae008
David Autor 1 , Caroline Chin 2 , Anna Salomons 3 , Bryan Seegmillerxs 4
Affiliation  

We answer three core questions about the hypothesized role of newly emerging job categories (‘new work’) in counterbalancing the erosive effect of task-displacing automation on labor demand: what is the substantive content of new work; where does it come from; and what effect does it have on labor demand? We construct a novel database spanning eight decades of new job titles linked both to US Census microdata and to patent-based measures of occupations’ exposure to labor-augmenting and labor-automating innovations. The majority of current employment is in new job specialties introduced since 1940, but the locus of new work creation has shifted from middle-paid production and clerical occupations over 1940–1980 to high-paid professional and, secondarily, low-paid services since 1980. New work emerges in response to technological innovations that complement the outputs of occupations and demand shocks that raise occupational demand. Innovations that automate tasks or reduce occupational demand slow new work emergence. Although the flow of augmentation and automation innovations is positively correlated across occupations, the former boosts occupational labor demand while the latter depresses it. The demand-eroding effects of automation innovations have intensified in the last four decades while the demand-increasing effects of augmentation innovations have not.

中文翻译:

新领域:新作品的起源和内容,1940-2018

我们回答了关于新兴工作类别(“新工作”)在抵消任务取代自动化对劳动力需求的侵蚀作用方面的假设作用的三个核心问题:新工作的实质性内容是什么?它从何而来; 对劳动力需求有何影响?我们构建了一个新颖的数据库,涵盖了八个十年的新职位,与美国人口普查微观数据以及基于专利的职业接触劳动力增强和劳动力自动化创新的衡量标准相关联。目前的就业大部分属于 1940 年以来引入的新工作专业,但新工作创造的重点已从 1940 年至 1980 年期间的中等收入生产和文书职业转向高收入专业人士,其次是 1980 年以来的低收入服务业新工作的出现是为了应对技术创新,这些创新补充了职业的产出和提高职业需求的需求冲击。自动化任务或减少职业需求的创新会减缓新工作的出现。尽管增强和自动化创新的流动在不同职业中呈正相关,但前者提高了职业劳动力需求,而后者则抑制了职业劳动力需求。过去四十年,自动化创新的需求侵蚀效应有所加剧,而增强型创新的需求增长效应却没有加剧。
更新日期:2024-03-15
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