We propose a kinetic model for understanding the link between opinion formation phenomena and epidemic dynamics. The recent pandemic has brought to light that vaccine hesitancy can present different phases and temporal and spatial variations, presumably due to the different social features of individuals. The emergence of patterns in societal reactions permits to design and predict the trends of a pandemic. This suggests that the problem of vaccine hesitancy can be described in mathematical terms, by suitably coupling a kinetic compartmental model for the spreading of an infectious disease with the evolution of the personal opinion of individuals, in the presence of leaders. The resulting model makes it possible to predict the collective compliance with vaccination campaigns as the pandemic evolves and to highlight the best strategy to set up for maximizing the vaccination coverage. We conduct numerical investigations which confirm the ability of the model to describe different phenomena related to the spread of an epidemic.

我们提出了一个动力学模型来理解舆论形成现象与流行病动态之间的联系。最近的大流行表明，疫苗犹豫可能会呈现不同阶段以及时间和空间变化，这可能是由于个体的不同社会特征所致。社会反应模式的出现使得设计和预测流行病的趋势成为可能。这表明，疫苗犹豫问题可以用数学术语来描述，通过在领导人在场的情况下，将传染病传播的动力学区室模型与个人个人观点的演变适当地结合起来。由此产生的模型可以预测随着大流行的发展对疫苗接种活动的集体依从性，并强调为最大化疫苗接种覆盖率而制定的最佳策略。我们进行了数值研究，证实了该模型描述与流行病传播相关的不同现象的能力。