This study assesses the projected trajectory of Warm Arctic-Cold Continent (WACC) events in East Asia and North America through large ensemble simulation for the upcoming decades. It analyses the evolution of the geographical boundaries of threshold cold temperatures, revealing a significant northward shift as a sign of global warming’s impact on the southward advancement of Arctic cold air. While validating the intensification of the WACC phenomenon until the 2020 s, echoing earlier studies, the findings indicate a marked decrease beginning in the 2030s. If warming is not curbed, this shift suggests a critical modification in the WACC pattern, prompting a re-evaluation of existing theories and models for extreme winter weather events. The results have major implications, spurring communities impacted by WACC to anticipate future changes and encouraging the climate forecasting community to update conceptual models for improved adaptation and mitigation approaches.

这项研究通过大型集合模拟，评估了未来几十年东亚和北美暖北极-冷大陆（WACC）事件的预计轨迹。它分析了阈值寒冷温度地理边界的演变，揭示了显着的北移，这是全球变暖对北极冷空气南移影响的标志。虽然验证了 WACC 现象在 2020 年代之前的加剧，与早期的研究相呼应，但研究结果表明，从 2030 年代开始，WACC 现象显着下降。如果变暖得不到遏制，这种转变表明 WACC 模式将发生重大变化，从而促使人们重新评估极端冬季天气事件的现有理论和模型。结果具有重大影响，促使受 WACC 影响的社区预测未来的变化，并鼓励气候预测界更新概念模型以改进适应和缓解方法。