This paper examines the endogenous relationship between residential level of accessibility and household trip frequencies to tease out the direct and indirect effects of observed behavioural differences. We estimate a multivariate ordered probit model system, which allows dependence in both observed and unobserved factors, using data from the 2016 Transportation Tomorrow Survey (TTS), a household travel survey in the Greater Golden Horseshoe Area (GGH) in Toronto. The modelling framework is used to analyse the influence of exogenous variables on eight outcome variables of accessibility levels and trip frequencies by four modes (auto, transit, bicycle and walk), and to explore the nature of the relationships between them. The results confirm our hypothesis that not only does a strong correlation exist between the residential level of accessibility and household trip frequency, but there are also direct effects to be observed. The complementarity effect between auto accessibility and transit trips, and the substitution effect observed between transit accessibility and auto trips highlight the residential neighbourhood dissonance of transit riders. It shows that locations with better transit service are not necessarily locations where people who make more transit trips reside. Essentially, both jointness (due to error correlations) as well as directional effects observed between accessibility and trip frequencies of multiple modes offer strong support for the notion that accessibility and trip frequency by mode constitute a bundled choice and need to be considered as such.

中文翻译：

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不同出行方式的可达性和家庭出行频率联合分析


本文研究了住宅可达性水平与家庭出行频率之间的内生关系，以梳理出观察到的行为差异的直接和间接影响。我们使用 2016 年交通运输调查 (TTS)（多伦多大金马蹄地区 (GGH) 的家庭旅行调查）的数据估计了一个多元有序概率模型系统，该系统允许观测和未观测因素的依赖性。该模型框架用于分析外生变量对四种出行方式（汽车、公交、自行车和步行）可达性水平和出行频率的八个结果变量的影响，并探讨它们之间关系的本质。结果证实了我们的假设，即住宅可达性水平与家庭出行频率之间不仅存在很强的相关性，而且还存在可观察到的直接影响。汽车可达性和公交出行之间的互补效应以及公交可达性和汽车出行之间观察到的替代效应凸显了公交乘客的居住区不和谐。这表明，交通服务较好的地点并不一定是交通出行次数较多的人居住的地方。本质上，联合性（由于误差相关性）以及多种模式的可达性和出行频率之间观察到的方向效应都为以下观点提供了强有力的支持：按模式的可达性和出行频率构成了捆绑选择，需要如此考虑。