<br>巨藻巨囊藻的物种分布模型：全球变化和以东南太平洋为重点,Ecology and Evolution

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巨藻巨囊藻的物种分布模型：全球变化和以东南太平洋为重点
Ecology and Evolution ( IF 2.3 ) Pub Date : 2024-03-01 , DOI: 10.1002/ece3.10901
Daniel Gonzalez-Aragon _{1,

2,

3} , Marcelo M Rivadeneira _{4,

5} , Carlos Lara _{6,

7} , Felipe I Torres _{1,

2,

8} , Julio A Vásquez _{2,

5,

9} , Bernardo R Broitman _{2,

3,

10}

Affiliation

Doctorado en Ciencias, mención en Biodiversidad y Biorecursos, Facultad de Ciencias Universidad Católica de la Santísima Concepción Concepcion Chile.
Instituto Milenio en Socio-Ecología Costera (SECOS) Santiago Chile.
Núcleo Milenio UPWELL.
Centro de Estudios Avanzados en Zonas Áridas Coquimbo Chile.
Departamento de Biología Marina, Facultad de Ciencias del Mar Universidad Católica del Norte Coquimbo Chile.
Departamento de Ecología, Facultad de Ciencias Universidad Católica de la Santísima Concepción Concepcion Chile.
Centro de Investigación en Recursos Naturales y Sustentabilidad Universidad Bernardo O'Higgins Santiago Chile.
Data Observatory Foundation, ANID Technology Center No. DO210001 Santiago Chile.
Centro de Investigación y Desarrollo Tecnológico en Algas y Otros Recursos Biológicos (CIDTA) Coquimbo Chile.
Facultad de Artes Liberales Universidad Adolfo Ibañez Viña Del Mar Chile.

当涉及栖息地形成物种时，全球气候驱动的物种分布变化尤其值得关注。在沿海环境中，大型海带藻类（海带）形成了支持复杂多样的食物网的关键沿海生态系统。海带之中，荧光大囊藻是分布最广泛的栖息地形成物种，并提供必要的生态系统服务。本研究旨在确定全球范围内未来分布变化的主要驱动因素，并利用它们来预测未来的栖息地适宜性。使用物种分布模型（SDM），我们检查了全球分布的变化中号。梨花属在不同的排放情景下，重点关注东南太平洋沿岸。为了将模拟的驱动因素限制在控制海带森林跨空间尺度分布的最重要因素上，我们探索了一系列环境变量并验证了从 SDM 得出的预测。最低海面温度是解释全球适宜栖息地分布的最重要变量。中号。梨花属。在不同的气候变化情景下，我们总是观察到低纬度地区适宜栖息地的减少，而其他地区（主要是高纬度地区）适宜栖息地的增加。沿着东南太平洋，我们观察到在RCP8.5情景下，2090年至2100年纬度上限收缩了-17.08°S，这意味着整个秘鲁海岸和极地至智利的-27.83°S的栖息地适宜性丧失。根据我们的模型预测，智利北部地区的栖息地将完全丧失，自然林正受到严重开发。栖息地适宜性的丧失将在全世界范围内发生：可能对海洋生物多样性和生态系统功能产生重大影响。此外，栖息地适宜性的变化是东南太平洋社会生态系统产生巨大影响的先兆。

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A species distribution model of the giant kelp Macrocystis pyrifera: Worldwide changes and a focus on the Southeast Pacific

Worldwide climate‐driven shifts in the distribution of species is of special concern when it involves habitat‐forming species. In the coastal environment, large Laminarian algae—kelps—form key coastal ecosystems that support complex and diverse food webs. Among kelps, Macrocystis pyrifera is the most widely distributed habitat‐forming species and provides essential ecosystem services. This study aimed to establish the main drivers of future distributional changes on a global scale and use them to predict future habitat suitability. Using species distribution models (SDM), we examined the changes in global distribution of M. pyrifera under different emission scenarios with a focus on the Southeast Pacific shores. To constrain the drivers of our simulations to the most important factors controlling kelp forest distribution across spatial scales, we explored a suite of environmental variables and validated the predictions derived from the SDMs. Minimum sea surface temperature was the single most important variable explaining the global distribution of suitable habitat for M. pyrifera. Under different climate change scenarios, we always observed a decrease of suitable habitat at low latitudes, while an increase was detected in other regions, mostly at high latitudes. Along the Southeast Pacific, we observed an upper range contraction of −17.08° S of latitude for 2090–2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario, implying a loss of habitat suitability throughout the coast of Peru and poleward to −27.83° S in Chile. Along the area of Northern Chile where a complete habitat loss is predicted by our model, natural stands are under heavy exploitation. The loss of habitat suitability will take place worldwide: Significant impacts on marine biodiversity and ecosystem functioning are likely. Furthermore, changes in habitat suitability are a harbinger of massive impacts in the socio‐ecological systems of the Southeast Pacific.

更新日期：2024-03-01

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