The phenology of critical biological events in aquatic ecosystems is rapidly shifting due to climate change. Growing variability in phenological cues can increase the likelihood of trophic mismatches (i.e., mismatches in the timing of peak prey and predator abundances), causing recruitment failures in important fisheries. We assessed changes in the spawning phenology of walleye (Sander vitreus) in 194 Midwest US lakes to investigate factors influencing walleye phenological responses to climate change and associated climate variability, including ice‐off timing, lake physical characteristics, and population stocking history. Ice‐off phenology shifted earlier, about three times faster than walleye spawning phenology over time. Spawning phenology deviations from historic averages increased in magnitude over time, and large deviations were associated with poor offspring survival. Our results foreshadow the risks of increasingly frequent natural recruitment failures due to mismatches between historically tightly coupled spawning and ice‐off phenology.

中文翻译：

---

产卵滞后和物候极端现象加剧危及北温带湖泊的白斑眼斑眼鱼（Sander vitreus）

由于气候变化，水生生态系统中关键生物事件的物候正在迅速变化。物候线索不断增加的变异性会增加营养不匹配的可能性（即猎物和捕食者丰度高峰时间的不匹配），从而导致重要渔业的补充失败。我们评估了白眼斑眼鱼产卵物候的变化（桑德玻璃体）在美国中西部的 194 个湖泊中，调查了影响白眼斑眼鱼对气候变化和相关气候变率的物候反应的因素，包括结冰时间、湖泊物理特征和种群放养历史。随着时间的推移，结冰物候变化较早，大约是白眼鱼产卵物候变化的三倍。随着时间的推移，产卵物候与历史平均值的偏差越来越大，而较大的偏差与后代存活率较差有关。我们的结果预示着由于历史上紧密耦合的产卵和冰封物候之间的不匹配而导致越来越频繁的自然补充失败的风险。