Though tariffs have declined in recent years, the number of applied non‐tariff measures (NTMs) in meat trade has expanded. We estimate the impacts of tariffs and NTMs (sanitary and phytosanitary [SPS] measures, technical barriers to trade [TBTs], quantitative restrictions, and special safeguard measures) on beef, pork and poultry trade using a structural gravity model. Our baseline regression results show tariffs hinder trade, but SPS measures and TBTs on average expand trade for these three meat products. Using the estimates from our structural gravity model, we simulate the differential effects of declining tariffs versus proliferation of NTMs between 2003 and 2019. The simulation results show that tariff reductions during this period expanded global trade by a cumulative US$466.2 million for the three products, ceteris paribus. In contrast, growth in the number of NTMs caused global meat trade to rise by US$8.4 billion. Our findings thus suggest that the marked increase in the number of applied NTMs in recent decades has had a dramatically larger impact on global meat trade than tariff reductions.

中文翻译：

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关税和非关税措施对牛肉、猪肉和家禽贸易的影响

尽管近年来关税有所下降，但肉类贸易中适用的非关税措施（NTM）数量有所增加。我们使用结构引力模型估算了关税和非关税措施（卫生和植物检疫 [SPS] 措施、技术性贸易壁垒 [TBT]、数量限制和特殊保障措施）对牛肉、猪肉和家禽贸易的影响。我们的基线回归结果显示关税阻碍了贸易，但卫生和植物检疫措施和技术性贸易壁垒平均扩大了这三种肉类产品的贸易。利用结构引力模型的估计，我们模拟了 2003 年至 2019 年间关税下降与非关税措施扩散的差异效应。模拟结果表明，在此期间，关税削减使这三种产品的全球贸易额累计扩大了 4.662 亿美元，其他条件不变的情况下。相比之下，非关税措施数量的增长导致全球肉类贸易额增加了 84 亿美元。因此，我们的研究结果表明，近几十年来应用非关税措施数量的显着增加对全球肉类贸易的影响远大于关税削减。