Media stories highlighted accounts of migration away from city centers towards more rural destinations during the COVID-19 pandemic, but systematic research about how the pandemic changed migration in more rural destinations is only starting to emerge. This paper relies on U.S. Postal Service change-of-address data to describe whether and how established domestic migration systems changed during the COVID-19 pandemic, focusing on differences across the rural–urban gradient and by outdoor recreation resources. We find little evidence of massive urban exodus. We do find that out-migration from rural counties declined post-pandemic onset and has stayed low in the 3 years since, stemming the tide of net population loss in many rural places. Most rural counties that experienced net population loss prior to the pandemic saw either less net loss or net gains during the pandemic. Rural recreation counties experienced greater gains through both decreased out-migration and increased in-migration in the first year of the pandemic; but by year three, differences between rural recreation and non-recreation counties had balanced. Overall, counties across Rural America saw notable change to pre-pandemic migration patterns. This shift may benefit rural areas through long-term population stability and/or growth but might also exacerbate housing and childcare shortages.

中文翻译：

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COVID-19 大流行中农村人口流动的变化☆

媒体报道强调了在 COVID-19 大流行期间从城市中心向更多农村目的地移民的报道，但关于大流行如何改变更多农村目的地的移民的系统研究才刚刚开始出现。本文依靠美国邮政服务地址变更数据来描述已建立的国内移民系统在 COVID-19 大流行期间是否以及如何发生变化，重点关注城乡梯度和户外休闲资源的差异。我们几乎没有发现大规模城市人口外流的证据。我们确实发现，疫情爆发后，农村县的人口外流有所下降，并且在疫情爆发后的三年内一直保持在较低水平，从而遏制了许多农村地区人口净流失的趋势。大多数在大流行之前经历过人口净损失的农村县在大流行期间要么净损失减少，要么净增加。在大流行的第一年，乡村娱乐县通过减少迁出和增加迁入而获得了更大的收益；但到了第三年，农村娱乐县和非娱乐县之间的差异就达到了平衡。总体而言，美国农村地区的各县在大流行前的移民模式发生了显着变化。这种转变可能通过长期人口稳定和/或增长使农村地区受益，但也可能加剧住房和儿童保育短缺。