The goal of this study is to provide insights into the expected role of medium-duty electric vehicles (EVs) in urban delivery fleets and to analyze the effectiveness of EV subsidies on EV fleet penetration and tailpipe emissions. To meet this goal, we propose a modeling framework that determines the minimum-cost fleet size and fleet mix (of EVs and conventional vehicles) and vehicle routes for a profit-maximizing delivery company. Second, we conduct extensive analyses using this modeling framework and Southern California network data; we vary the EV driving range, per-mile cost of EVs, demand rate, service region size/structure, driver working hours, and network travel times. We find that the optimal fleet mix nearly always includes EVs and conventional vehicles. Moreover, we find that EV subsidies have limited effectiveness with current EV batteries and service regions designed around conventional vehicles. Hence, improving EV battery technology is critical to electrifying urban delivery fleets.

中文翻译：

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城市配送车队中的电动汽车：它们能走多远？

本研究的目的是深入了解中型电动汽车 (EV) 在城市送货车队中的预期作用，并分析电动汽车补贴对电动汽车车队普及率和尾气排放的有效性。为了实现这一目标，我们提出了一个建模框架，用于确定利润最大化的送货公司的最低成本车队规模和车队组合（电动汽车和传统车辆）以及车辆路线。其次，我们使用该建模框架和南加州网络数据进行广泛的分析；我们改变电动汽车的行驶里程、电动汽车的每英里成本、需求率、服务区域规模/结构、驾驶员工作时间和网络行驶时间。我们发现最佳车队组合几乎总是包括电动汽车和传统车辆。此外，我们发现电动汽车补贴对于当前围绕传统汽车设计的电动汽车电池和服务区域的有效性有限。因此，改进电动汽车电池技术对于城市配送车队的电气化至关重要。