Kenya’s constitutional referendums in 2005 and 2010 stand out for their continuity with the national elections that followed both polls. During campaigns for and against the draft constitutions, politicians attempted to leverage their popularity amongst co-ethnics to signal their viability as coalition partners or ‘formateurs’ in subsequent general elections: rather than nuanced debates on constitutional issues, the campaigns became personal contests that one observer dubbed an ‘industry of insults’. A decade later, this process was repeated as the country’s political class considered further revisions to the constitution. Kenya’s referendum campaigns thus reflect a layer of strategic behaviour that has not been recognized in much of the contemporary literature on democratization and constitutional change in Africa. While the substance of the country’s constitution matters to Kenyan elites, referendum campaigns have added value to leaders independently of the outcomes of the polls themselves. The prominence of ethnicity as an organizing feature in Kenyan politics combined with high levels of party volatility produces an environment in which referendum campaigns serve as opportunities for Kenyan politicians to renegotiate political coalitions and realign party politics in between election cycles. In this way, the country’s referendum politics are a distinct byproduct of its historical and political circumstances.

中文翻译：

---

非洲宪法公投中的民族政治和政党重组：理解肯尼亚的“侮辱行业”

肯尼亚 2005 年和 2010 年的宪法公投因其与两次投票后举行的全国选举的连续性而引人注目。在支持和反对宪法草案的竞选活动中，政客们试图利用他们在同族裔中的受欢迎程度来表明他们在随后的大选中作为联盟伙伴或“组织者”的可行性：这些竞选活动不是针对宪法问题进行细致入微的辩论，而是成为个人竞赛观察家称之为“侮辱行业”。十年后，随着该国政治阶层考虑进一步修改宪法，这一过程又重复了。因此，肯尼亚的公投运动反映了一层战略行为，而这一层战略行为在许多有关非洲民主化和宪法变革的当代文献中尚未得到承认。虽然该国宪法的实质内容对肯尼亚精英很重要，但公投运动为领导人增加了价值，而与民意调查本身的结果无关。种族作为肯尼亚政治中的一个组织特征的突出地位，加上政党的高度波动，创造了一种环境，在这种环境中，公投运动为肯尼亚政治家在选举周期之间重新谈判政治联盟和重新调整政党政治提供了机会。因此，该国的公投政治是其历史和政治环境的明显副产品。