What determines media coverage on cyber conflict (CC)? Media bias fostering misperception is a well-established problem in conflict reporting. Because of the secrecy and complexity surrounding cyber operations (COs), where most data moreover come from marketing publications by private sector firms, this problem is likely to be especially pronounced in reporting on cyber threats. Because media reporting shapes public perception, such bias can shape conflict dynamics and outcomes with potentially destabilizing consequences. Yet little research has examined media bias systematically. This study connects existing literature on media reporting bias with the CC literature to formulate four theoretical explanations for variation in reporting on COs based on four corresponding characteristics of a CO. We introduce a new dataset of COs reporting by the private sector, which we call the Cyber Conflict Media Coverage Dataset, and media reporting on each of these operations. Consequently, we conduct a statistical analysis to identify which of these characteristics correlate with reporting quantity. This analysis shows that the use of novel techniques, specifically zero-day exploits, is a highly significant predictor of coverage quantity. Operations targeting the military or financial sector generate less coverage. We also find that cyber effect operations tend to receive more coverage compared to espionage, but this result is not statistically significant. Nonetheless, the predictive models explain limited variation in news coverage. These findings indicate that COs are treated differently in the media than other forms of conflict, and help explain persistent threat perception among the public despite the absence of catastrophic cyberattacks.

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如果发出蜂鸣声，它会导通吗？媒体对网络冲突和误解的报道

是什么决定了媒体对网络冲突 (CC) 的报道？媒体偏见助长误解是冲突报道中一个众所周知的问题。由于网络运营 (CO) 的保密性和复杂性，而且大多数数据都来自私营部门公司的营销出版物，因此这个问题在网络威胁报告中可能尤其明显。由于媒体报道塑造了公众的看法，因此这种偏见可能会影响冲突的动态和结果，从而带来潜在的不稳定后果。然而，很少有研究系统地审视媒体偏见。本研究将有关媒体报道偏见的现有文献与 CC 文献联系起来，根据 CO 的四个相应特征，对 CO 报告的变化制定了四种理论解释。我们引入了私营部门报告的 CO 的新数据集，我们将其称为网络冲突媒体报道数据集，以及对每项行动的媒体报道。因此，我们进行统计分析，以确定哪些特征与报告数量相关。该分析表明，新技术的使用，特别是零日漏洞利用，是覆盖率的一个非常重要的预测因素。针对军事或金融部门的行动产生的覆盖范围较小。我们还发现，与间谍活动相比，网络效应行动往往会受到更多的报道，但这一结果在统计上并不显着。尽管如此，预测模型解释了新闻报道的有限变化。这些发现表明，媒体对网络冲突的对待与其他形式的冲突有所不同，并有助于解释尽管没有发生灾难性网络攻击，但公众对威胁的持续认知。