Recent research shows that comprehensive peace agreements (CPAs) are effective in ending civil wars and improving post-conflict conditions, but CPAs emerge in only a fraction of civil wars. This study provides systematic evidence about the origins of CPAs and the role of international actors in facilitating their signing. We argue that mediation is more likely to be successful and that CPAs are more likely to emerge in those civil war countries that are members in a higher number of IGOs with high economic leverage. Using their financial and institutional leverage, these IGOs can help the combatants overcome the credible commitment problems associated with entering into mediation, and with making sufficient concessions and compromises to reach and sign a CPA. Analyzing all intrastate armed conflicts from 1989 to 2011, we find that a conflict country’s memberships in IGOs with high economic leverage increase the odds of (1) mediation occurring and (2) mediation subsequently leading to the signing of CPAs. This finding is robust to common sources of spurious relationships between international institutions and the behavior of conflict parties. Participating in IGOs with high economic leverage carries important positive consequences for civil war management and enhances the impact of mediation on getting conflict parties to sign CPAs.

中文翻译：

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政府间组织阴影下的内战调解：达成全面和平协议的路径

最近的研究表明，全面和平协议（CPA）对于结束内战和改善冲突后状况有效，但全面和平协议只出现在一小部分内战中。这项研究提供了有关 CPA 起源以及国际参与者在促进其签署方面的作用的系统证据。我们认为，在那些内战国家中，调解更有可能取得成功，并且 CPA 更有可能出现，这些国家是具有较高经济影响力的政府间组织数量较多的成员。这些政府间组织利用其财务和机构影响力，可以帮助战斗人员克服与进入调解以及做出充分让步和妥协以达成并签署全面协议相关的可信承诺问题。通过分析 1989 年至 2011 年的所有州内武装冲突，我们发现，冲突国家在具有高经济杠杆的政府间组织中的成员资格增加了（1）发生调解和（2）调解随后导致签署全面协议的可能性。这一发现对于国际机构与冲突各方行为之间虚假关系的常见根源是有力的。参与具有高经济影响力的政府间组织会给内战管理带来重要的积极影响，并增强调解对让冲突各方签署《全面和平协议》的影响。