Most cyber intrusions are a form of intelligence rather than warfare, but intelligence remains undertheorized in international relations (IR). This article develops a theory of intelligence performance at the operational level, which is where technology is most likely to affect broader political and military outcomes. It uses the pragmatic method of abduction to bootstrap general theory from the historical case of Bletchley Park in World War II. This critical case of computationally enabled signals intelligence anticipates important later developments in cybersecurity. Bletchley Park was uncommonly successful due to four conditions drawn from contemporary practice of cryptography: radio networks provided connectivity; German targets created vulnerability; Britain invested in bureaucratic organization; and British personnel exercised discretion. The method of abduction is used to ground these particular conditions in IR theory, revisit the evaluation of the case, and consider historical disanalogies. The result is a more generalizable theory that can be applied to modern cybersecurity as well as traditional espionage. The overarching theme is that intelligence performance in any era depends on institutional context more than technological sophistication. The political distinctiveness of intelligence practice, in contrast to war or coercive diplomacy, is deceptive competition between rival institutions in a cooperatively constituted institutional environment. Because cyberspace is highly institutionalized, furthermore, intelligence contests become pervasive in cyberspace.

中文翻译：

---

被黑客绑架：利用布莱切利公园的案例构建了一种推广到网络安全的情报表现理论

大多数网络入侵都是情报而非战争的一种形式，但情报在国际关系 (IR) 中仍然没有得到充分理论化。本文提出了作战层面的情报绩效理论，这是技术最有可能影响更广泛的政治和军事结果的领域。它使用实用的溯因方法从二战布莱奇利公园的历史案例中引导一般理论。这种基于计算的信号情报的关键案例预示着网络安全的重要后续发展。布莱切利公园的成功得益于当代密码学实践中的四个条件：无线电网络提供连接性；德国的目标造成了脆弱性；英国投资于官僚组织；英国人员行使了自由裁量权。溯因法被用来在国际关系理论中奠定这些特殊条件，重新审视对案例的评估，并考虑历史的反类比。其结果是一个更通用的理论，可以应用于现代网络安全以及传统间谍活动。最重要的主题是，任何时代的情报表现都更多地取决于制度背景，而不是技术的复杂性。与战争或强制外交相比，情报实践的政治独特性是在合作构建的制度环境中敌对机构之间的欺骗性竞争。由于网络空间高度制度化，情报竞赛在网络空间普遍存在。