Confidence is commonly assumed to monitor the accuracy of responses. However, intriguing results, examined in the light of philosophical discussions of epistemic justification, suggest that confidence actually monitors the reliability of choices rather than (directly) their accuracy. The focus on reliability is consistent with the view that the construction of truth has much in common with the construction of reality: extracting reliable properties that afford prediction. People are assumed to make a binary choice by sampling cues from a “collective wisdomware,” and their confidence is based on the consistency of these cues, in line with the self-consistency model. Here, however, I propose that internal consistency is taken to index the reliability of choices themselves—the likelihood that they will be repeated. The results of 10 studies using binary decisions from different domains indicated that confidence in a choice predicts its replicability both within individuals and across individuals. This was so for domains for which choices have a truth value and for those for which they do not. For the former domains, differences in replicability mediated the prediction of accuracy whether confidence was diagnostic or counterdiagnostic of accuracy. Metatheoretical, methodological, and practical implications are discussed.

中文翻译：

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主观信心作为响应可重复性的监控器


通常假设置信度可以监控响应的准确性。然而，根据认知论证的哲学讨论检验的有趣结果表明，信心实际上监控选择的可靠性，而不是（直接）其准确性。对可靠性的关注与这样的观点是一致的：真理的构建与现实的构建有很多共同点：提取提供预测的可靠属性。假设人们通过从“集体智慧软件”中采样线索来做出二元选择，并且他们的信心基于这些线索的一致性，符合自我一致性模型。然而，在这里，我建议采用内部一致性来衡量选择本身的可靠性——它们被重复的可能性。使用来自不同领域的二元决策进行的 10 项研究的结果表明，对选择的信心可以预测其在个体内部和个体之间的可复制性。对于选择具有真值和不具有真值的领域来说都是如此。对于前一个领域，可复制性的差异介导了准确性的预测，无论置信度是准确性的诊断还是反诊断。讨论了元理论、方法论和实际意义。