While numerous studies have demonstrated the effects of density and diversity on metro ridership, few studies have explored the long-term mechanisms of these effects. Employing smartcard data and multisource big data from Wuhan between 2015 and 2019, this study applied the panel threshold model to explore the long-term threshold effects of station area density and diversity on metro station-to-station ridership. The results indicated that only when development intensity and land use mix exceeded the threshold values would there be significant positive impacts on ridership at the origins and destinations, and the ridership benefits were significantly reduced when the origin intensity exceeded 1.622 or when the mix exceeded 0.635. Additionally, population density, POI mixture, bus stops and parking lots, station, and network attributes had long-term significant impacts on metro ridership. These findings can contribute to implementing differentiated land development patterns and promoting the sustainable development of TOD strategies.

中文翻译：

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探索密度和多样性对地铁客流量的长期阈值效应

尽管大量研究证明了密度和多样性对地铁客流量的影响，但很少有研究探讨这些影响的长期机制。本研究利用武汉2015年至2019年的智能卡数据和多源大数据，应用面板阈值模型探讨车站面积密度和多样性对地铁站间客流的长期阈值效应。结果表明，只有当开发强度和土地利用组合超过阈值时，才会对始发地和目的地的客流产生显着的正向影响，并且当始发地强度超过1.622或混合超过0.635时，客流效益显着降低。此外，人口密度、POI 组合、公交车站和停车场、车站和网络属性对地铁客流量有长期的重大影响。这些研究结果有助于实施差异化的土地开发模式，促进TOD战略的可持续发展。