Objectives

To estimate the dynamic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on property crime in Mexico. We do so for a longer time horizon than the existing literature and for two types of property crime: on-line and on-site.

Methods

A retrospective ecological analysis during the COVID-19 pandemic using an event study methodology. This paper uses administrative data from Mexico’s National Public Security System from January 2017 to December 2022. Our data is structured as a monthly series covering all 2457 Mexican municipalities.

Results

We find heterogeneity in the pandemic’s impact by type of property crime and a dynamic, permanent effect for both types of property crime. Namely, our results point to a drop and quick recovery of fraud—property crime mostly committed on-line—, which in the medium run surpasses pre-pandemic levels by 44%. Further, our results point to a significant drop in robbery, theft, domestic burglary, and motor vehicle theft—all property crimes committed on-site—, with a slight recovery after the end of the national lockdown, even though rates for these crimes never reached pre-pandemic levels.

Conclusions

The 2020 pandemic caused a permanent shift in property crime from on-site to on-line spaces. Potential mechanisms point to disruptions in mobility in retail and recreational areas, residential zones, and workplaces as important mediating factors.

中文翻译：

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墨西哥 COVID-19 大流行期间财产犯罪模式的变化

目标

评估 COVID-19 大流行对墨西哥财产犯罪的动态影响。我们这样做的时间范围比现有文献更长，并且针对两种类型的财产犯罪：在线和现场。

方法

使用事件研究方法对 COVID-19 大流行期间的回顾性生态分析。本文使用墨西哥国家公共安全系统 2017 年 1 月至 2022 年 12 月的行政数据。我们的数据采用月度序列，涵盖所有 2457 个墨西哥城市。

结果

我们发现，疫情对财产犯罪类型的影响存在异质性，并且对两种类型的财产犯罪产生动态、永久性的影响。也就是说，我们的结果表明欺诈行为（主要是在网上实施的财产犯罪）有所下降并迅速恢复，从中期来看，欺诈行为比大流行前的水平高出 44%。此外，我们的结果表明，抢劫、盗窃、入室盗窃和机动车盗窃（所有现场财产犯罪）均大幅下降，在国家封锁结束后略有回升，尽管这些犯罪的发生率从未下降达到了大流行前的水平。

结论

2020 年的大流行导致财产犯罪从现场永久转移到网上。潜在的机制表明，零售和休闲区、住宅区和工作场所的流动性中断是重要的中介因素。