Brookings Papers on Economic Activity ( IF 2.7 ) Pub Date : 2024-02-15 , DOI: 10.1353/eca.2023.a919358 Katharine G. Abraham , Lea E. Rendell
Labor force participation and average hours of work both fell sharply at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. Neither had fully recovered by the end of 2022. The drop in participation between December 2019 and December 2022 implies a loss of 3 million people from the labor force; the decline in average hours over the same period translates to the equivalent of 2.6 million fewer workers. Demographic and other trend factors that predated the pandemic explain most of the participation shortfall. Taken together, COVID-19-related health effects and the persistent (though shrinking) effects of the fear of contracting COVID-19 more than explain the rest. In contrast, pre-pandemic factors account for little of the shortfall in hours. COVID-19-related health effects account for perhaps 40 percent of that decline, but we are unable to explain the majority of the hours shortfall. We speculate that the lower level of hours in the post-pandemic period may reflect a shift in the desired balance between work and other aspects of workers' lives.
中文翻译:
失踪工人在哪里?大流行后预期和意外的劳动力供应变化
在 COVID-19 大流行之初,劳动力参与率和平均工作时间均大幅下降。到 2022 年底,两者都没有完全恢复。2019 年 12 月至 2022 年 12 月期间参与率下降意味着劳动力流失 300 万人;同期平均工作时间的下降相当于减少了 260 万名工人。大流行之前的人口和其他趋势因素解释了参与不足的大部分原因。总而言之,与 COVID-19 相关的健康影响以及对感染 COVID-19 的恐惧所带来的持续(尽管有所减弱)的影响足以解释其余的问题。相比之下,大流行前的因素对小时数的减少几乎没有造成影响。与 COVID-19 相关的健康影响可能占这一下降的 40%,但我们无法解释大部分时间短缺的原因。我们推测,大流行后时期工作时间的减少可能反映了工作与工人生活其他方面之间所需平衡的转变。