Background: The demographic dividend, a concept that is widely used in development cooperation, describes the economic growth potential based on shifts towards a large share of working-age population in the course of the demographic transition. However, a long-term global country-level assessment of the underlying changes in the working-age population and associated demographic factors is missing. Objective: The aim of this paper is to identify and describe past, present, and future global patterns in changes in the share of the working-age population and to detect the relevance of associated demographic factors. Methods: Using cluster and linear regression analyses, we identify patterns in trajectories of working-age populations and detect associated demographic factors. We perform these analyses for 148 countries, using data from the UN World Population Prospects 2022 (1950‒2100). Results: Our results expose distinct trajectories of changes in the share of working-age population. We find noticeable differences between countries that are already further along the demographic transition and those still with relatively high levels of fertility. In addition to fertility, changes in the share of working-age population are associated with migration and population momentum. Conclusions: A large proportion of countries that are still in the earlier stages of the demographic transition show changes in the share of working-age population that differ substantially from countries that experienced significant fertility decline in the past. Contribution: Besides exposing distinct trajectories of changes in the share of working-age population, our study reveals the relevance of migration and population momentum to potential benefits from a demographic dividend – two factors that are not receiving enough attention in current discussions about the prospects for demographic dividends in countries that are yet to experience noticeable increases in the share of their working-age population.

中文翻译：

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生育率下降、年龄结构变化以及人口红利的潜力：全球分析（作者：Markus Dörflinger、Elke Loichinger）

背景：人口红利是发展合作中广泛使用的一个概念，描述了在人口转型过程中，基于劳动年龄人口比例的转变而产生的经济增长潜力。然而，缺乏对工作年龄人口和相关人口因素的根本变化的长期全球国家级评估。目标：本文的目的是识别和描述过去、现在和未来工作年龄人口比例变化的全球模式，并检测相关人口因素的相关性。方法：使用聚类和线性回归分析，我们确定了工作年龄人口的轨迹模式并检测相关的人口统计因素。我们使用联合国《2022 年世界人口展望》（1950-2100 年）的数据对 148 个国家进行了这些分析。结果：我们的结果揭示了劳动年龄人口比例的不同变化轨迹。我们发现，已经处于人口转型阶段的国家与生育率仍相对较高的国家之间存在显着差异。除了生育率之外，劳动年龄人口比例的变化还与移民和人口动力有关。结论：大部分仍处于人口转型早期阶段的国家，其劳动年龄人口比例的变化与过去生育率大幅下降的国家有很大不同。贡献：除了揭示劳动年龄人口比例变化的独特轨迹外，我们的研究还揭示了移民和人口动量与人口红利潜在收益的相关性——这两个因素在当前有关劳动力前景的讨论中没有得到足够的重视。劳动年龄人口比例尚未显着增加的国家的人口红利。