More than half of the forest area of the North German Lowlands is stocked with Scots pine-dominated forests, mostly plantations. Climate change suggests a declining suitability of Europe’s temperate zone for conifer plantations, but only a few studies have examined the long-term growth trends of Scots pine in relation to environmental and site factors in this region. We studied the radial growth patterns of Scots pine over the last 60 years at ten sites along a precipitation gradient (830–530 mm mean annual precipitation) from an oceanic to a subcontinental climate, analyzing the spatial and temporal variability of the climate sensitivity of growth to identify the main climatic factors influencing pine growth across this gradient, which covers a large part of the species’ tolerated precipitation range. Annual radial increment was sensitive to late-winter temperatures (February, March) and summer drought and heat (June–August), with sensitivity increasing from the oceanic to the drier continental sites. Warmer late-winter periods apparently have stimulated growth during the last decades, while the sensitivity to summer-drought has remained fairly stable. Until recently, the negative impact of warming summers on growth has been compensated by the positive effect of late-winter warming, resulting in stable (or increasing) growth trends. However, our comparison of the climate sensitivity across sites suggests that the drought effect compensation through winter warming will in future be limited by increasing drought exposure. Thus, future productivity declines are likely in the northern German lowlands despite warming winters, discouraging large-scale pine plantations in the face of climate warming.

德国北部低地一半以上的森林面积都是以赤松为主的森林，其中大部分是人工林。气候变化表明欧洲温带地区对针叶树种植园的适宜性下降，但只有少数研究考察了欧洲赤松与该地区环境和场地因素之间的长期生长趋势。我们研究了过去 60 年中从海洋气候到次大陆气候的降水梯度（年平均降水量 830-530 毫米）十个地点的赤松径向生长模式，分析了生长的气候敏感性的空间和时间变化以确定影响该梯度松树生长的主要气候因素，该梯度涵盖了该物种耐受降水范围的很大一部分。年径向增量对冬末气温（2 月、3 月）和夏季干旱和炎热（6 月至 8 月）敏感，从海洋到干燥的大陆地区，敏感性逐渐增加。过去几十年来，冬末温暖显然刺激了经济增长，而对夏季干旱的敏感性则保持相当稳定。直到最近，夏季变暖对生长的负面影响已被冬末变暖的积极影响所补偿，从而导致稳定（或增加）的生长趋势。然而，我们对不同地点气候敏感性的比较表明，未来通过冬季变暖补偿干旱效应将受到干旱暴露程度增加的限制。因此，尽管冬季变暖，德国北部低地未来的生产力仍可能下降，从而在气候变暖的情况下阻碍大规模松树种植园的发展。