This study analyzes the shear slip potential and ground uplift around high-level radioactive waste (HLW) repositories using coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) numerical models at a far-field scale. Alternative disposal concepts with multi canisters or layers to increase disposal efficiency, which is inversely proportional to the disposal area, are considered. The change in the coulomb failure stress (CFS) is used to evaluate the shear slip potential around the geological repository, assuming hypothetical faults with specific orientations are critically stressed. Initially, the CFS dominantly increased inside the repository and near the lateral boundary of the system, and it gradually dissipated as decay heat from the HLW significantly diminished. The maximum ΔCFS outside the reference, double-canister, triple-canister, double-layer, and triple-layer disposal concepts is calculated as 1.9 MPa, 2.33 MPa, 2.39 MPa, 2.63 MPa, and 2.77 MPa, respectively, near the boundary of the repositories. However, ΔCFS is lower than the shear slip criterion if a fault is located more than 2 km away from the all disposal repositories. The influence of fault orientation is evaluated by plotting ΔCFS on a stereonet for each disposal concept. The maximum ΔCFSs of the reference and double-canister disposal concepts are calculated if the approximate dip angle of a fault is 30°, whereas that of other disposal concepts is determined at a dip angle of 20°. The double-layer disposal concept exhibits the largest amount of ground uplift among all disposal concepts, but the effect of ground uplift on the surface facilities can be deemed insignificant considering the rate and slope of ground uplift. Parametric studies on the fault friction coefficient, elastic modulus, and thermal expansion coefficient of rock mass suggest that the shear slip potential and ground uplift are largely dependent on those parameters. Thus, site characterization is essential for designing a deep geological repository to maintain a sufficient distance from a fault.

本研究使用远场尺度的热-水-机械（THM）耦合数值模型分析了高放射性废物（HLW）处置库周围的剪切滑移潜力和地面隆起。考虑采用多罐或多层的替代处置概念，以提高处置效率，处置效率与处置面积成反比。库仑破坏应力 (CFS) 的变化用于评估地质库周围的剪切滑移潜力，假设具有特定方向的假设断层受到临界应力。最初，CFS 主要在处置库内部和系统侧边界附近增加，随着来自 HLW 的衰变热显着减少，CFS 逐渐消散。参考、双罐、三罐、双层和三层处置概念之外的最大ΔCFS计算结果分别为1.9 MPa、2.33 MPa、2.39 MPa、2.63 MPa和2.77 MPa，在边界附近存储库。然而，如果断层距离所有处置库超过 2 km，则 ΔCFS 低于剪切滑移准则。通过在立体网上绘制每个处置概念的 ΔCFS 来评估故障方向的影响。参考和双罐处置方案的最大ΔCFS是在断层近似倾角为30°时计算的，而其他处置方案的最大ΔCFS是在断层倾角为20°时确定的。双层处置方案中地面隆起量是所有处置方案中最大的，但考虑到地面隆起的速率和坡度，地面隆起对地面设施的影响可以认为是微不足道的。对断层摩擦系数、弹性模量和岩体热膨胀系数的参数研究表明，剪切滑移势和地面隆起在很大程度上取决于这些参数。因此，场地特征对于设计深层地质处置库以保持与断层足够的距离至关重要。