In an attempt to increase the bicycle share in transport in Oslo, the municipality launched an e-bike subvention programme in 2016. One thousand persons were to receive a 20% subvention if they bought an e-bike, by registering via a municipal webpage on a first come first served basis. Nearly 700 ended up buying a subsidised e-bike. A connected research project surveyed subvention recipients and non-recipients, including registration of daily transport by cycle/e-bike, walk, car, and public transport, before the programme took effect, with a similar surveying after most of those qualifying for subvention had bought their e-bike. In this paper we assess the effects of the e-bike subvention in a cost-benefit analysis.

The cost-benefit analysis compares the cost of carrying out the e-bike subvention programme against the benefits due to transport mode shift and increased active travel. The benefits, the changes in monetised external effects, comprise two main elements: the health effect from active travel and the congestion, emissions, etc. caused by cars and larger vehicles.

Differently from former studies, we take into account that transport mode changes following from a bicycle project will normally not imply only shift from private car to bicycling, but also shifts from walking and public transport to cycling. Moreover, some of the negative external effects from private cars and public transport vehicles are already internalised via taxation and can be deducted from the calculations.

Our ex-post assessment of the implemented e-bike programme indicates that the benefits in the year of implementation probably surpassed the costs of the programme. The benefit calculation was relatively robust to alternative assumptions for the road transport (the share of electric cars, the occupancy in public transport, and the share of congested travel), but relatively less robust to altered assumption about the active travel. However, if there is an impact of the e-bike subvention programme beyond the implementation year, we have underestimated the benefits.

为了增加奥斯陆交通中的自行车共享，该市政府于 2016 年启动了一项电动自行车补贴计划。如果 1000 人购买了电动自行车，通过在市政网页注册即可获得 20% 的补贴先到先得。近 700 人最终购买了一辆有补贴的电动自行车。一个相关的研究项目在该计划生效之前对补贴接受者和非接受者进行了调查，包括自行车/电动自行车、步行、汽车和公共交通的日常交通登记，并在大多数有资格获得补贴的人接受了类似的调查后进行了类似的调查。买了他们的电动自行车。在本文中，我们通过成本效益分析评估了电动自行车补贴的效果。

成本效益分析将执行电动自行车补贴计划的成本与交通方式转变和主动出行增加带来的收益进行比较。收益，即货币化外部效应的变化，包括两个主要要素：积极出行对健康的影响以及汽车和大型车辆造成的拥堵、排放等。

与以往的研究不同，我们考虑到自行车项目带来的交通方式变化通常不仅意味着从私家车转向自行车，而且还意味着从步行和公共交通转向自行车。此外，私家车和公共交通车辆的一些负面外部影响已经通过税收内部化，可以从计算中扣除。

我们对已实施的电动自行车计划的事后评估表明，实施当年的收益可能超过了该计划的成本。收益计算对于道路交通的替代假设（电动汽车的份额、公共交通的占用率以及拥堵出行的份额）相对稳健，但对于主动出行的改变假设相对不太稳健。然而，如果电动自行车补贴计划在实施年份之后产生影响，我们就低估了其好处。