Climate change impacts such as extreme temperatures, snow and ice, flooding, and sea level rise posed significant threats to railway infrastructure networks. One of the important questions that infrastructure managers need to answer is, “How will maintenance costs be affected due to climate change in different climate change scenarios?” This paper proposes an approach to estimate the implication of climate change on the life cycle cost (LCC) of railways infrastructure assets. The proportional hazard model is employed to capture the dynamic effects of climate change on reliability parameters and LCC of railway assets. A use-case from a railway in North Sweden is analyzed to validate the proposed process using data collected over 18 years. The results have shown that precipitation, temperature, and humidity are significant weather factors in selected use-case. Furthermore, our analyses show that LCC under future climate scenarios will be about 11 % higher than LCC without climate impacts.

极端气温、冰雪、洪水和海平面上升等气候变化影响对铁路基础设施网络构成了重大威胁。基础设施管理者需要回答的重要问题之一是“在不同的气候变化情景下，维护成本将如何受到气候变化的影响？” 本文提出了一种估计气候变化对铁路基础设施资产生命周期成本（LCC）影响的方法。采用比例风险模型来捕捉气候变化对铁路资产可靠性参数和生命周期成本的动态影响。我们对瑞典北部铁路的用例进行了分析，以使用 18 年来收集的数据来验证所提出的流程。结果表明，降水、温度和湿度是选定用例中的重要天气因素。此外，我们的分析表明，未来气候情景下的低成本成本将比没有气候影响的低成本成本高出约 11%。