Freight transport decarbonization is challenging due to the slow implementation of policies to meet climate goals. This paper analyzes the dynamics of the implementation of freight decarbonization measures. A System Dynamics model was developed and applied to the Brazilian freight system to simulate the use of more sustainable modes and means of transport, including electrification, increased use of biofuels, acceleration of fleet renewal, and modal shift. Significant emission reductions are found in the scenarios combining a shift to alternative modes and a rapid phase-out of diesel vehicles. Even so, the Brazilian freight sector’s emission budgets towards limiting global warming to 1.5 °C and 2 °C will be depleted during the current and next decade, respectively. An absolute reduction of carbon emissions before 2050 seems unlikely. Besides confirming the need to study the dynamics of the freight system, the findings corroborate the urgency for stronger actions on freight decarbonization.

由于实现气候目标的政策实施缓慢，货运脱碳面临挑战。本文分析了货运脱碳措施实施的动态。开发了系统动力学模型并将其应用于巴西货运系统，以模拟更可持续的运输方式和运输方式的使用，包括电气化、增加生物燃料的使用、加速车队更新和模式转变。在转向替代模式和快速淘汰柴油车的情况下，排放量显着减少。即便如此，巴西货运业将全球变暖限制在 1.5°C 和 2°C 的排放预算将在当前和未来十年分别耗尽。2050 年之前碳排放量绝对减少似乎不太可能。除了证实有必要研究货运系统的动态之外，研究结果还证实了采取更有力的货运脱碳行动的紧迫性。