Abstract:

The demographic theory of fertility has interested prominent scholars for more than a century. Most recently and notably, Greenhalgh (1994), Van de Kaa (1995), de Bruijn (2006) and Leridon (2015) have dedicated their works to the analysis of the established demographic theories. They have provided a typology and analysis of demographic theories of fertility and illuminated many components of the latter, including the logic of theories’ development and evolution, their multidisciplinary nature and their “anchors” in the existing body of knowledge in their respective broader fields. Still, scholars acknowledge … “we still have no universally accepted explanation for why the Western post-war baby boom occurred, and why it ended. Nor do we have any clear idea of how fertility will evolve in countries where it is currently below replacement level. Homo demographicus is yet to be born…” (Leridon, 2015). The proposed agenda for advancing demographic theories include linking them to their predecessors in social sciences, analyzing them from the theory construction standpoint, providing distinctions between several branches of each of these theories, and outlining a strategy for the integration of compatible parts of these theories.

摘要：

一个多世纪以来，人口生育理论一直吸引着著名学者的兴趣。最近值得注意的是，Greenhalgh (1994)、Van de Kaa (1995)、de Bruijn (2006) 和 Leridon (2015) 致力于分析已建立的人口理论。他们提供了生育率人口理论的类型学和分析，并阐明了后者的许多组成部分，包括理论发展和演变的逻辑、它们的多学科性质以及它们在各自更广泛领域的现有知识体系中的“锚点”。尽管如此，学者们承认……“对于西方战后婴儿潮为何发生以及为何结束，我们仍然没有普遍接受的解释。我们也不清楚目前生育率低于更替水平的国家的生育率将如何演变。人口统计学尚未诞生……”（Leridon，2015）。提出的推进人口理论的议程包括将它们与社会科学的前辈联系起来，从理论构建的角度对其进行分析，提供这些理论的几个分支之间的区别，并概述这些理论的兼容部分的整合策略。