Zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) are technological innovations that have the potential to strengthen efficiency and sustainability improvement within the transportation sector. However, privately owned local bus transport firms lack the resources to make ZEVs especially Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) easily accessible for their logistics services. Therefore, this study proposes to pave the way for technological transformation in the public transport (PT) sector by exploring how these local bus businesses can facilitate the sustained use of BEVs in order to establish a better efficiency from their services. Specifically, the critical facilitating conditions for adopting batter-electric buses (BEBs) in privately owned local PT companies were obtained using Fuzzy Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (Fuzzy DEMATEL) while their nonlinear relationships of importance levels were predicted using adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS). A system dynamics model was proposed that illustrates the dynamic nonlinear relationships of the multiple effects of these conditions on transport efficiency (TE). Based on empirical evidence in Nigeria, the proposed methods were verified and the study results predict that government support, affordable electricity tariffs, access to electric minibuses and presence of charging infrastructure are foremost in boosting the sustained use of BEBs in the local PT sector. Meanwhile, government support improves TE more quickly in a short period while presence of charging infrastructure, affordable electricity tariffs and access to electric minibuses are more effective for stimulating TE over a longer period. This study has implications for decision makers and policy makers that design strategies for BEB adoption to improve TE in the local public transport sector.

零排放车辆（ZEV）是一种技术创新，有潜力提高交通运输行业的效率和可持续性。然而，当地私营公交运输公司缺乏资源，无法让 ZEV，尤其是电池电动汽车 (BEV) 轻松获得其物流服务。因此，本研究建议通过探索这些本地巴士企业如何促进纯电动汽车的持续使用，从而提高其服务效率，为公共交通（PT）领域的技术转型铺平道路。具体而言，使用模糊决策试验与评估实验室（Fuzzy DEMATEL）获得了当地私营公共交通公司采用纯电动公交车（BEB）的关键促进条件，同时使用自适应神经模糊预测了它们重要性水平的非线性关系推理系统（ANFIS）。提出了一个系统动力学模型，该模型说明了这些条件对运输效率（TE）的多重影响的动态非线性关系。根据尼日利亚的经验证据，所提出的方法得到了验证，研究结果预测，政府支持、负担得起的电价、电动小巴的普及和充电基础设施的存在是促进当地公共交通部门持续使用 BEB 的最重要因素。与此同时，政府的支持可以在短期内更快地提高 TE，而充电基础设施、负担得起的电价和电动小巴的使用则可以更有效地在较长时期内刺激 TE。这项研究对于决策者和政策制定者具有重要意义，他们可以设计采用 BEB 的策略，以改善当地公共交通部门的 TE。