Climate change poses a challenge for resource utilization and environmental pollution issues caused by agricultural production, especially in arid to semi-arid regions. Farmland water, carbon and nitrogen balances are closely related to these resource and environmental issues. Thus, the Agro-Hydrological & chemical and Crop systems simulator was used to assess the response of water, carbon and nitrogen balances to climate change in a spring wheat farmland of arid to semi-arid Northwest China and to propose adaptation strategies. Five Global Climate Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 and two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1–2.6 and SSP5–8.5) were used to establish scenarios with the Agro-Hydrological & chemical and Crop systems simulator to simulate farmland water, carbon and nitrogen balances for the 2025–2100 period. Various irrigation amounts and nitrogen fertilization rates were tested as compensation strategies. Results indicated that climate change could negatively affect farmland water, carbon and nitrogen balances, especially under the SSP5–8.5 scenario. Precipitation showed an increasing trend, thus percolation increased and soil water consumption decreased from 2025 to 2100. However, for the carbon budget, although the soil carbon dioxide emissions tend to decrease, the net primary production was also significantly reduced, which resulted in declining the net ecosystem carbon budget under future climatic conditions. In addition, higher temperature and increased precipitation enhanced soil inorganic nitrogen leaching and nitrous oxide emissions but reduced ammonia volatilization from 2025 to 2100. Overall, the soil total nitrogen loss was increased over time, whereas crop nitrogen uptake was significantly reduced. In relation to the SSP1–2.6 scenario, the SSP5–8.5 scenario accelerated the increase rates of soil water percolation and total nitrogen loss over time, as well as the decrease rates of crop nitrogen uptake and net primary production over time. The negative effects caused by climate change can be mitigated by reducing irrigation and increasing nitrogen fertilization. For the SSP1–2.6 scenario, 30% irrigation reduction and 30% nitrogen fertilization increase can effectively decrease soil water percolation and the related nitrogen losses while crop nitrogen uptake, net primary production and net ecosystem carbon budget increase in relation to the current management (irrigation = 240 mm and nitrogen fertilization = 200 kg ha^–1). For SSP5–8.5 the strategy with 45% irrigation reduction and 45% nitrogen fertilization increase can also decrease nitrogen losses and increase crop nitrogen uptake, net primary production and net ecosystem carbon budget.

气候变化给农业生产带来的资源利用和环境污染问题带来了挑战，特别是在干旱半干旱地区。农田水、碳、氮平衡与这些资源环境问题密切相关。因此，利用农业水文化学和作物系统模拟器评估了西北干旱半干旱春小麦农田水、碳、氮平衡对气候变化的响应，并提出适应策略。使用耦合模型比对项目 6 中的五个全球气候模型和两个共享社会经济路径（SSP1–2.6 和 SSP5–8.5）通过农业水文化学和作物系统模拟器建立情景，以模拟农田水、碳和氮平衡2025-2100 年期间。作为补偿策略，测试了不同的灌溉量和施氮量。结果表明，气候变化会对农田水、碳和氮平衡产生负面影响，特别是在 SSP5-8.5 情景下。2025年至2100年，降水量呈增加趋势，渗流增加，土壤耗水量减少。然而，对于碳预算而言，虽然土壤二氧化碳排放量呈下降趋势，但净初级生产也显着减少，导致土壤耗水量下降。未来气候条件下的净生态系统碳预算。此外，从2025年到2100年，气温升高和降水增加增加了土壤无机氮淋溶和一氧化二氮排放，但减少了氨挥发。总体而言，随着时间的推移，土壤全氮流失增加，而作物氮吸收显着减少。与SSP1-2.6情景相比，SSP5-8.5情景加速了土壤水渗滤和总氮损失随时间的增加速率，以及作物氮吸收和净初级生产力随时间的减少速率。气候变化造成的负面影响可以通过减少灌溉和增加氮肥来减轻。对于SSP1-2.6情景，减少30%的灌溉量和增加30%的氮肥施肥量可以有效减少土壤水渗透和相关的氮素损失，同时作物氮素吸收、净初级生产和净生态系统碳预算相对于当前管理（灌溉）增加= 240 mm，施氮量 = 200 kg ha ^–1 )。对于SSP5-8.5，减少45%灌溉和增加45%施氮肥的策略也可以减少氮素损失并增加作物氮素吸收、净初级生产力和净生态系统碳预算。