To develop effective climate strategies, it is necessary to model the long-term impacts of combined policy measures. This study examines how an increase in working-from-home (WFH) practices, coupled with higher private car fleet penetration of electric vehicles (EVs), could change commuting patterns and associated emissions. Simulations for the Dublin Region show that if half of white-collar workers were WFH and EVs made up one-third of the fleet as forecasted for 2030, emissions from travel activities could be reduced by up to 35% for carbon dioxide (CO₂) and 25% for particulate matter (PM). However, transitioning from a moderate to a high WFH scenario may not deliver significant benefits in terms of travel length, modal shift, and emissions reduction. In addition, a decrease in commuter trips can lead to an increase in other trips. This suggests that there is a need for additional measures to discourage car usage when commuter trips decline.

为了制定有效的气候战略，有必要对综合政策措施的长期影响进行建模。本研究探讨了在家工作 (WFH) 做法的增加，加上私家车中电动汽车 (EV) 渗透率的提高，如何改变通勤模式和相关排放。对都柏林地区的模拟表明，如果按照 2030 年的预测，一半的白领在家办公，电动汽车占车队的三分之一，则出行活动产生的二氧化碳 (CO 2 ) 排放量最多可减少₃₅ %颗粒物 (PM) 为 25%。然而，从中度在家办公场景过渡到高度在家办公场景可能不会在旅行距离、模式转变和减排方面带来显着的好处。此外，通勤出行的减少可能会导致其他出行的增加。这表明，当通勤出行减少时，需要采取额外措施来抑制汽车的使用。