What are the distributional consequences of migration, and how do they affect attitudes toward migration? In this paper we leverage a natural experiment generated by the ousting of former Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi, which created an unprecedented influx of economic migrants from African countries to Europe. This surge of low-skilled labor benefited low-productivity firms by lowering their production costs and expanding their labor supply. Employing a triple difference-in-differences design, we document that attitudes toward migration became more positive in Western European regions with large shares of migrants and low-productivity firms. Evidence from Sweden, which provides finely grained geographical data, confirms these findings. We then test the economic microfoundations of this attitudinal shift. We show that the surge in the supply of low-skilled labor increased the profitability of low-productivity firms more in areas that experienced larger migration flows. We find no evidence that migration worsened natives’ labor market conditions.

移民的分配后果是什么？它们如何影响对移民的态度？在本文中，我们利用了前利比亚独裁者穆阿迈尔·卡扎菲被推翻所产生的自然实验，该实验造成了前所未有的经济移民从非洲国家涌入欧洲。低技能劳动力的激增降低了生产成本并扩大了劳动力供应，从而使低生产率企业受益。采用三重双重差分设计，我们记录了在移民比例较高且企业生产率较低的西欧地区，人们对移民的态度变得更加积极。来自瑞典的证据证实了这些发现，该国提供了精细的地理数据。然后我们测试这种态度转变的经济微观基础。我们发现，在移民流量较大的地区，低技能劳动力供应的激增更多地提高了低生产率企业的盈利能力。我们没有发现任何证据表明移民使当地人的劳动力市场状况恶化。