Despite the cost reductions of green hydrogen, it is uncertain when cost parity with blue hydrogen will be achieved. Beyond technology costs, electricity and natural gas prices, hydrogen’s competitiveness will be increasingly determined by carbon costs or regulation associated with its life-cycle emissions. Theoretically and numerically, we demonstrate that higher residual emissions of blue hydrogen can close its competitive window much earlier than the cost parity of green hydrogen suggests. In regions where natural gas prices remain substantially higher (∼40 EUR/MWh) than before the energy crisis, such a window is narrow or has already closed. While blue hydrogen could potentially bridge the scarcity of green hydrogen, uncertainties about the beginning and end of blue hydrogen competitiveness may hinder investments. In contrast, in regions where natural gas prices drop to ≤15 EUR/MWh, blue hydrogen can remain competitive until at least 2040, contingent upon achieving rigorous CO capture (>90%) and negligible methane leakage rates (<1%).

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论蓝氢和绿氢的成本竞争力

尽管绿氢的成本降低了，但何时能实现与蓝氢的成本平价尚不确定。除了技术成本、电力和天然气价格之外，氢的竞争力将越来越多地取决于碳成本或与其生命周期排放相关的监管。从理论上和数值上，我们证明了蓝氢较高的残余排放量可以比绿氢的成本平价所表明的更早关闭其竞争窗口。在天然气价格仍比能源危机前高得多（约 40 欧元/兆瓦时）的地区，这样的窗口很窄或已经关闭。虽然蓝氢有可能弥补绿氢的稀缺性，但蓝氢竞争力开始和结束的不确定性可能会阻碍投资。相比之下，在天然气价格降至≤15欧元/兆瓦时的地区，蓝氢至少可以在2040年之前保持竞争力，前提是实现严格的二氧化碳捕获（>90%）和可忽略不计的甲烷泄漏率（<1%）。