We investigate the forecasting accuracy of several simple methods for predicting mortality in small regional areas in Poland. We focus on methods that scale country-level forecasts appropriately and, therefore, can be used by official statistical agencies to improve population projections. We examine data from 379 sub-NUTS-3 districts in Poland for the period 2006–2019, divided into three subperiods. The first period is treated as the training sample and the latter two the testing subperiods. The mortality surface method delivers the most accurate forecasts of the mortality profiles whereas using the district-level standardized mortality rates (SMR) calculated for several broad age groups to scale the country-level mortality forecasts gives the best life expectancy at birth predictions. The latter approach is far better than using the NUTS-2-based standardized mortality rate (SMR), as practiced by the Polish statistical agency. For single age-groups predictions, the SMR-based methods deliver relatively accurate forecasts for young cohorts, but their forecasting accuracy deteriorates significantly with age.

我们研究了几种预测波兰小区域死亡率的简单方法的预测准确性。我们重点关注适当调整国家一级预测的方法，因此官方统计机构可以使用这些方法来改进人口预测。我们检查了 2006 年至 2019 年期间波兰 379 个 NUTS-3 子区的数据，分为三个子时期。第一个时期被视为训练样本，后两个时期被视为测试子时期。死亡率表面法可提供最准确的死亡率预测，而使用针对几个广泛年龄组计算的地区级标准化死亡率 (SMR) 来扩展国家级死亡率预测可提供最佳的出生预期寿命预测。后一种方法远远优于波兰统计机构采用的基于 NUTS-2 的标准化死亡率 (SMR)。对于单一年龄组的预测，基于SMR的方法可以为年轻群体提供相对准确的预测，但其预测准确性随着年龄的增长而显着下降。