Objectives

To study the effect of Conditional Release (C.R.) on recidivism. To compare this effect along different recidivism risk levels, to evaluate whether risk-assessment-based policies that prioritize people in lower risk categories for release maximally reduce recidivism.

Methods

We use a dataset of 22,726 incarcerated persons released from 87 prison centers in Spain. We apply multiple causal inference methods including Propensity Score Matching (PSM), Inverse Propensity score Weighting (IPW), and Augmented Inverse Propensity Weighting (AIPW) to determine Average Treatment Effect (ATE) of C.R. on recidivism.

Results

Granting C.R. significantly reduces violent and general recidivism risks.

Conclusions

The results suggest that C.R. can promote a safe and supervised return to the community while protecting public safety. ATEs obtained through causal inference methods suggest that granting C.R. exclusively to low-risk inmates does not lead to the maximum reduction of recidivism, and hence we propose alternatives to be studied further.

中文翻译：

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有条件释放对暴力和一般累犯的影响：因果推理研究

目标

研究有条件释放（CR）对累犯的影响。比较不同累犯风险水平的这种影响，评估基于风险评估的政策，优先释放低风险类别的人，是否能最大程度地减少累犯。

方法

我们使用从西班牙 87 个监狱中心释放的 22,726 名被监禁者的数据集。我们应用多种因果推理方法，包括倾向评分匹配（PSM）、逆倾向评分加权（IPW）和增强逆倾向加权（AIPW）来确定 CR 对累犯的平均治疗效果（ATE）。

结果

授予 CR 可以显着降低暴力和一般累犯风险。

结论

结果表明，CR 可以在保护公共安全的同时，促进安全、受监督地返回社区。通过因果推理方法获得的 ATE 表明，仅向低风险囚犯授予 CR 并不能最大程度地减少累犯，因此我们提出有待进一步研究的替代方案。