The effects of climate change on the natural rate of interest: A critical survey,WIREs Climate Change

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The effects of climate change on the natural rate of interest: A critical survey
WIREs Climate Change ( IF 9.4 ) Pub Date : 2023-12-18 , DOI: 10.1002/wcc.873
Francesco Paolo Mongelli ₁ , Wolfgang Pointner ₂ , Jan Willem van den End _{3,

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Affiliation

This survey reviews the literature about the possible impacts of climate change on the natural rate of interest (r*), an important yardstick for monetary policy. Prima facie, economic, and financial developments can lower r* in scenarios with increasing climate-related damages and uncertainty that reduce productivity growth and raise precautionary savings. Orderly climate policies have a pivotal role in facilitating the transition to a carbon-neutral economy and supporting a steady investment flow. We discuss the main models used to simulate the effects of climate change on r* and summarize the outcomes. However, in scenarios that assume innovations and investments induced by transition policies, r* could be affected positively. Overall, the downward effects of climate change on r* can be substantial, even considering the high degree of uncertainty about the outcomes, with tipping points and nonlinear effects aggravating the economic impacts. The downward pressure on r* will further challenge monetary policy in the long run, by limiting its policy space.

中文翻译：

气候变化对自然利率的影响：一项批判性调查

本调查回顾了有关气候变化对自然利率（r *）可能产生的影响的文献，自然利率是货币政策的重要衡量标准。表面上看，在气候相关损害和不确定性不断增加的情况下，经济和金融发展可以降低r *，从而降低生产率增长并提高预防性储蓄。有序的气候政策在促进向碳中和经济转型和支持稳定的投资流动方面发挥着关键作用。我们讨论了用于模拟气候变化对r *影响的主要模型并总结了结果。然而，在假设转型政策引发创新和投资的情况下，r * 可能会受到积极影响。总体而言，即使考虑到结果的高度不确定性，气候变化对r * 的下行影响也可能很大，临界点和非线性效应会加剧经济影响。从长远来看，r *的下行压力将进一步挑战货币政策，限制其政策空间。

更新日期：2023-12-18

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