I defend the thesis that legal standards of proof are reducible to thresholds of probability. Many reject this thesis because it appears to permit finding defendants liable solely on the basis of statistical evidence. To the contrary, I argue – by combining Thomson's (1986) causal analysis of legal evidence with formal methods of causal inference – that legal standards of proof can be reduced to probabilities, but that deriving these probabilities involves more than just statistics.

中文翻译：

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只是概率

我捍卫这样的论点：法律证明标准可以简化为概率的阈值。许多人拒绝这一论点，因为它似乎允许仅根据统计证据来确定被告的责任。相反，我认为，通过将汤姆森（1986）对法律证据的因果分析与因果推理的正式方法相结合，法律的证明标准可以简化为概率，但推导这些概率不仅仅涉及统计。