Objectives

This meta-analysis tested whether multimodel inference provides more conclusive evidence than traditional single-hypothesis testing regarding predictors that moderate sexual recidivism as an indicator of treatment effectiveness in persons with sexual offense histories.

Methods

A dataset including 35 studies equivalent to the meta-analysis by Holper et al. (Sex Abuse 2023; 0: 1–37) was used. Multimodel inference based on information theory tested 15 publication-, study-, treatment-, and individual-specific moderators.

Results

Only risk level was related to sexual recidivism. A greater posttreatment reduction in sexual recidivism was apparent in high- and medium- compared to low-risk individuals. This moderator explained 77% of the residual heterogeneity.

Conclusions

Compared to previous reports, the multimodel approach provided clearer evidence on which factors moderate sexual recidivism. Results corroborated the relevance of risk level, which relates to the risk-need-responsivity model. The findings may support treatment recommendations in persons with sexual offense histories in the criminal justice system.

中文翻译：

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评估性累犯调节因素的多模型荟萃分析作为有性犯罪史者治疗效果的指标

目标

这项荟萃分析测试了多模型推理是否比传统的单一假设检验提供了更确凿的证据，涉及缓和性累犯的预测因子，作为有性犯罪历史的人的治疗有效性指标。

方法

包含 35 项研究的数据集，相当于 Holper 等人的荟萃分析。使用了（性虐待 2023；0：1-37）。基于信息论的多模型推理测试了 15 个出版物、研究、治疗和个人特定的调节器。

结果

只有风险水平与累犯有关。与低风险个体相比，高风险和中风险个体治疗后性累犯明显减少。该调节因子解释了 77% 的残余异质性。

结论

与之前的报告相比，多模型方法为哪些因素调节性累犯提供了更清晰的证据。结果证实了风险水平的相关性，与风险-需求-响应模型相关。研究结果可能支持刑事司法系统中对有性犯罪历史的人的治疗建议。