Transportation ( IF 3.5 ) Pub Date : 2023-12-12 , DOI: 10.1007/s11116-023-10453-6 Ali Enes Dingil , Andre Maia Pereira , Ondrej Přibyl , Jakub Vorel
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There is a raise in public awareness on environmental and health issues in recent years, therefore many municipalities changed their transport policy direction to become more sustainable, especially active mobility based. This study makes use of an activity-based demand model to simulate urban mobility and policies for sustainable transport modes in the Usti nad Labem district using an agent-based model simulator driven by a co-evolutionary algorithm. Two policy scenarios were created by considering the transport literature and analyzing the characteristics and behaviors of citizens as well as the properties of the study area. Three scenarios—the actual situation, a cycleway-infrastructure case, and a bus priority case—were simulated for the study area with MATSim software. Both policy scenarios resulted in a decrease in car usage, with a higher drop seen in the cycleway-infrastructure scenario. 9.11% higher public transport ridership and 2.45% more of public transport modal share are observed in the bus priority compared to the actual situation, however the car-related emissions did not decrease. 6.36% more of cycling modal share was also noticed in the cycleway-infrastructure scenario which, the transport modal shift is enhanced by 2.6 more times than in the bus priority scenario. Car driving hours were significantly reduced in the cycleway scenario (5535 h less in a day) where 445.3 tons of car-related CO2 emissions would be saved annually, therefore environmental benefits of cycling modal share increase in the study area is undoubtable in long-term.
中文翻译:
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由基于代理的模拟驱动的基于证据的交通政策分析:拉贝河畔乌斯季的交通案例
近年来,公众对环境和健康问题的认识有所提高,因此许多城市改变了交通政策方向,变得更加可持续,尤其是基于主动出行的政策。本研究利用基于活动的需求模型,通过共同进化算法驱动的基于代理的模型模拟器来模拟乌斯季河畔拉贝姆地区的城市交通和可持续交通模式政策。通过考虑交通文献并分析公民的特征和行为以及研究区域的属性,创建了两种政策情景。使用 MATSim 软件对研究区域模拟了三种场景:实际情况、自行车道基础设施案例和公交优先案例。这两种政策情景都导致汽车使用量下降,其中自行车道基础设施情景中的下降幅度更大。与实际情况相比,公交优先的公共交通乘客量增加了 9.11%,公共交通模式份额增加了 2.45%,但与汽车相关的排放并未减少。在自行车道-基础设施场景中,自行车交通方式的份额也增加了 6.36%,其中交通方式转换比公交车优先场景提高了 2.6 倍。在自行车道情景下,汽车行驶时间显着减少(每天减少 5535 小时),每年可减少 445.3 吨汽车相关的 CO 2排放,因此,研究区域内自行车交通份额增加的环境效益在长期来看是毋庸置疑的。学期。