LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA 观测运行 4 和 5 期间发现的中子星合并电磁对应物的预测,Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society

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LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA 观测运行 4 和 5 期间发现的中子星合并电磁对应物的预测
Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society ( IF 4.7 ) Pub Date : 2023-12-02 , DOI: 10.1093/mnras/stad3711
Ved G Shah _{1,

2} , Gautham Narayan _{1,

3,

4} , Haille M L Perkins _{1,

3,

4} , Ryan J Foley ₅ , Deep Chatterjee ₆ , Bryce Cousins _{4,

7} , Phillip Macias ₅

Affiliation

我们提出了一个全面的、可配置的开源软件框架，用于估计与双中子星（BNS）合并的引力波探测相关的千新星（KNe）电磁探测率。我们使用当前灵敏度和正常运行时间值以及使用下一次观测运行 (O5) 的预测灵敏度来模拟当前的 LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA (LVK) 观测运行 (O4)。我们发现 LVK O4 期间可发现的千新星数量为 ${ 1}_{- 1}^{+ 4}$ 或 ${ 2 }_{- 2 }^{+ 3 }$（置信度为 90%）取决于合并双星中 NS 质量的分布，其数量在 O5 期间增加一个数量级到 ${ 19 }_{- 11 }^{+ 24 }$。无论质量模型如何，我们预测 O4 中最多可检测到 5 个 KNe（置信度为 95%）。我们还生成与每个合并系统的物理特性相对应的光学和近红外光曲线。我们整理了重要信息，用于分配搜索和后续观测的观测资源，包括几个宽带中的峰值震级分布以及特定设施可以检测到每个 KN 的时间尺度。该框架易于调整，并且可以根据更新的信息（例如精炼的合并率和 NS 质量分布）快速生成新的模拟。最后，我们将我们的模拟套件与 O4 迄今为止已完成的部分（截至 2023 年 10 月 14 日）进行比较，发现可发现的 KNe 的中位数为 0，95% 的上限为 2，与没有检测到的情况一致，因此远在O4。

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Predictions for electromagnetic counterparts to Neutron Star mergers discovered during LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA observing runs 4 and 5

We present a comprehensive, configurable open-source software framework for estimating the rate of electromagnetic detection of kilonovae (KNe) associated with gravitational wave detections of binary neutron star (BNS) mergers. We simulate the current LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA (LVK) observing run (O4) using current sensitivity and uptime values as well as using predicted sensitivites for the next observing run (O5). We find the number of discoverable kilonovae during LVK O4 to be ${ 1}_{- 1}^{+ 4}$ or ${ 2 }_{- 2 }^{+ 3 }$, (at 90% confidence) depending on the distribution of NS masses in coalescing binaries, with the number increasing by an order of magnitude during O5 to ${ 19 }_{- 11 }^{+ 24 }$. Regardless of mass model, we predict at most five detectable KNe (at 95-per cent confidence) in O4. We also produce optical and near-infrared light curves that correspond to the physical properties of each merging system. We have collated important information for allocating observing resources for search and follow-up observations, including distributions of peak magnitudes in several broad bands and timescales for which specific facilities can detect each KN. The framework is easily adaptable, and new simulations can quickly be produced in response to updated information such as refined merger rates and NS mass distributions. Finally, we compare our suite of simulations to the thus-far completed portion of O4 (as of October 14, 2023), finding a median number of discoverable KNe of 0 and a 95-percentile upper limit of 2, consistent with no detections so far in O4.

更新日期：2023-12-02

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